The relation of ENSO with global surface temperature

Michael K. Tippett, Emily Becker

Here we examined the seasonal structure of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–global surface temperature relation in monthly observations for June 1979–May 2026. Neglecting seasonality, correlations of Niño-3.4 with global mean surface temperature (GMST) and tropical mean surface temperature (TMST) are largest at lags of three and two months, respectively; without detrending, GMST correlations are statistically insignificant. However, this apparent lag emerges from averaging a seasonally varying, phase-locked relation rather than from a season-independent relation. The largest month-dependent correlations of Niño-3.4 with GMST and TMST occur in January and February, respectively, and are related to tropical responses outside of the Pacific, consistent with atmospheric bridge mechanisms. Zonally averaged ENSO composites show temperature signals are mostly limited to the tropics, though global composites show notable exceptions over North America, Asia, and Europe. The space–time structure of the ENSO–temperature relation provides a new target for climate model assessment.