The Invisible Depletion: Compound Drought, Groundwater Collapse, and Maladaptation in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

Mahmoud Osman , Amy McNally, Benjamin I Cook

The Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESWA) region is experiencing severe hydro-climatic non-stationarity, transitioning from cyclical precipitation deficits and surpluses to a state of structural water bankruptcy. This review synthesizes the compounding atmospheric and anthropogenic drivers of this crisis, highlighting the region’s shift towards a regime defined by frequent, concurrent extremes of drought and heat ("Hot Drought" regime). While fundamental ocean-basin teleconnections (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation) to MESWA remain intact, their hydrological impacts have become asymmetric, with the impact of drought-causing La Niña events remaining robust even while the wetter-than-normal conditions associated with El Niño have become less reliable. This asymmetry has emerged because (1) expected moisture delivery to MESWA has been frequently deflected by persistent atmospheric blocking and (2) escalating temperatures and extreme evaporative demand have reduced snow water storage and the ability of precipitation events to recharge surface moisture and water resources. To compensate for these losses in surface water availability, the region has increasingly relied on unregulated groundwater extraction. This dynamic has created a Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) maladaptation trap where governments are forced to liquidate future aquifer reserves to prevent immediate food system collapse. This anthropogenic depletion, combined with the ongoing cryospheric buffer failure, has pushed regional basins past thresholds of historical elasticity—manifesting as irreversible physical degradation such as land subsidence, and coastal salinization—locking the corridor into a state where climatic variability alone is no longer sufficient to recharge water resources. We argue that operational Early Warning Systems (EWS) must expand beyond traditional, precipitation-centric meteorological forecasting by additionally tracking absolute systemic limits using Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) and evaporative stress indices.