Article Instance

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{
    "pk": 24068,
    "title": "Paradoxical parsimony: How latent complexity favors theory simplicity",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Investigating how people evaluate more or less complex causal theories has been a focal point of research. However, previous studies have either focused on token-level causation or restricted themselves to very small sets of explanatory variables. We provide a new approach for modeling theory selection that foregrounds the balance between observed and latent structure in the mechanism being explained. We combine a Bayesian framework with program induction, allowing an unbounded and partially observable model space through sampling, and reflecting how a preference for simplicity emerges naturally in this setting. Through simulation, we identify two rational principles: (1) Simpler explanations should be favored as latent uncertainty (the number of hidden variables) increases; (2) latent structure is attributed a larger role when the observable patterns become less compressible. We conducted a behavioral experiment and found that human judgments tended to reflect these principles, indicating that people are sensitive to latent uncertainty when selecting between explanations.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Philosophy; Psychology; Causal reasoning; Learning; Bayesian modeling"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers with Poster Presentation",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/33r065cs",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Tianwei",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Gong",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Edinburgh",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Simon",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Valentin",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Edinburgh",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Chris",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Lucas",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Edinburgh",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Neil",
            "middle_name": "R.",
            "last_name": "Bramley",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Edinburgh",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2024-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24068/galley/13662/download/"
        },
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24068/galley/21437/download/"
        }
    ]
}