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{
    "pk": 24604,
    "title": "Bias in Belief Updating: Combining the Bayesian Sampler with Heuristics",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "People systematically deviate from the rational Bayesian updating of beliefs, as notably evidenced by conservatism and base-rate neglect. The primary cognitive models that explain these biases include simple heuristics (Woike et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cogpsych.2023.101564) and stochastic sampling approximations of the Bayesian solution, like the Bayesian Sampler (Zhu et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000190) However, neither type of explanation appears entirely complete, as the data fall between the two; only about half of participants' responses align with heuristics. Could these results be explained by a new class of models that blend heuristics with Bayesian models? We test both simple mixtures of heuristics and the Bayesian Sampler, as well as a hybrid model in which heuristics are used to set a prior that improves estimates based on stochastic samples. Our analysis indicates that neither heuristics nor the Bayesian Sampler alone are sufficient to explain the data.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Psychology; Behavioral Science; Decision making; Bayesian modeling; Computational Modeling"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Abstracts",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5142b5v1",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Yitong",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Lin",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Warwick",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Jian-Qiao",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Zhu",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Princeton University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Adam",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Sanborn",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Warwick",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2024-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24604/galley/17770/download/"
        }
    ]
}