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{
    "pk": 25550,
    "title": "Predictions from Uncertain Beliefs",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "According to probabilistic theories of higher cognition,\nbeliefs come in degrees. Here, we test this idea by studying\nhow people make predictions from uncertain beliefs.\nAccording to the degrees-of-belief theory, people should\ntake account of both high- and low-probability beliefs\nwhen making predictions that depend on which of those\nbeliefs are true. In contrast, according to the all-or-none\ntheory, people only take account of the most likely belief,\nignoring other potential beliefs. Experiments 1 and 2 tested\nthese theories in explanatory reasoning, and found that\npeople ignore all but the best explanation when making\nsubsequent inferences. Experiment 3A extended these\nresults to beliefs fixed only by prior probabilities, while\nExperiment 3B found that people can perform the\nprobability calculations when the needed probabilities are\nexplicitly given. Thus, people’s intuitive belief system\nappears to represent beliefs in a ‘digital’ (true or false)\nmanner, rather than taking uncertainty into account",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Explanation; abduction; causal reasoning;\nbelief; prediction; diagnosis; probability; uncertainty"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9dt917xm",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Samuel",
            "middle_name": "G.B.",
            "last_name": "Johnson",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Yale University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Thomas",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Merchant",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Brown University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Frank",
            "middle_name": "C",
            "last_name": "Keil",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Yale University",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2015-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/25550/galley/15174/download/"
        }
    ]
}