Article Instance

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{
    "pk": 25679,
    "title": "Causal reasoning in a prediction task with hidden causes",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Correctly assessing the consequences of events is essential for\na successful interaction with the world. It not only requires a\ncausal understanding of the world but also the ability to distinguish\nwhether a given event is the result of an agent’s own\naction (intervention) or simply the consequence of the world\nbeing in action (observation). Previous studies have shown\nthat humans can learn causal structures, and that they can distinguish\ninterventions from observations. These studies almost\nexclusively focused on structures where interventions led to a\nsimple forward conditioned inference problem. We tested human\nsubjects in a prediction game that required the integration\nover hidden causes, using a betting mechanism that allowed us\nto monitor subjects’ beliefs. Subjects learned the causal structure\nand the conditional probabilities with appropriate feedback.\nOnce learned, all but one were immediately able to correctly\npredict the causal effects of their interventions according\nto optimal causal reasoning.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Causal interventions"
        },
        {
            "word": "betting game"
        },
        {
            "word": "belief updates"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6209t575",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Pedro",
            "middle_name": "A",
            "last_name": "Ortega",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Pennsylvania",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Daniel",
            "middle_name": "D",
            "last_name": "Lee",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Pennsylvania",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Alan",
            "middle_name": "A",
            "last_name": "Stocker",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Pennsylvania",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2015-01-02T00:00:00+06:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/25679/galley/15303/download/"
        }
    ]
}