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{
    "pk": 25734,
    "title": "Assessing the Perceived Predictability of Functions",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "How do we perceive the predictability of functions? We\nderive a rational measure of a function's predictabil-\nity based on Gaussian process learning curves. Using\nthis measure, we show that the smoothness of a func-\ntion can be more important to predictability judgments\nthan the variance of additive noise or the number of\nsamples. These patterns can be captured well by the\nlearning curve for Gaussian process regression, which in\nturn crucially depends on the eigenvalue spectrum of\nthe covariance function. Using approximate bounds on\nthe learning curve, we model participants' predictabil-\nity judgments about sampled functions and ?nd that\nsmoothness is indeed a better predictor for perceived\npredictability than both the variance and the sample\nsize. This means that it can sometimes be preferable\nto learn about noisy but smooth functions instead of\ndeterministic complex ones.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Function learning"
        },
        {
            "word": "Predictability"
        },
        {
            "word": "smooth-\nness"
        },
        {
            "word": "Gaussian Processes"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0w17n1rw",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Erich",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Schulz",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University College London",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Joshua",
            "middle_name": "B",
            "last_name": "Tenenbaum",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "MIT",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "David",
            "middle_name": "N",
            "last_name": "Reshef",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "MIT",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Maarten",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Speekenbrink",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University College London",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Samuel",
            "middle_name": "J",
            "last_name": "Gershman",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "MIT",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2015-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/25734/galley/15358/download/"
        }
    ]
}