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{
    "pk": 25753,
    "title": "Prospective uncertainty: The range of possible futures in physical predictions",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Recent research has suggested that people make physical\npredictions based on extrapolation from a noisy representation\nof the world, which gives rise to a probabilistic distribution\nover possible future worlds. But can people use the\nuncertainty of their predictions to inform their decisions, or\ncan people access only a single possible future? Here we\ndemonstrate that confidence-sensitive decisions about the\nfuture track the amount of uncertainty expected from\nprobabilistic forward extrapolations. Participants were asked\nto make predictions about where a ball would go and indicate\nan expected range around that prediction. This range was well\ncorrelated with two measures of uncertainty: variability in\npredictions across participants and the amount of uncertainty\nexpected by a model of physical prediction. This suggests that\npeople form a probabilistic distribution over possible futures\nin the course of physical prediction and base their decisions\nabout the future on this range.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "prediction; uncertainty; physical reasoning; noisy\nNewton physics"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7mb5p73k",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Kevin",
            "middle_name": "A",
            "last_name": "Smithson",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of California, San Diego",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Edward",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Vul",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of California, San Diego",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2015-01-01T10:00:00-08:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/25753/galley/15377/download/"
        }
    ]
}