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{
    "pk": 25800,
    "title": "Pattern Probabilities for Non-Dichotomous Events:\nA New Rational Contribution to the Conjunction Fallacy Debate",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "This paper analyzes probability judgments about properties\nthat can take multiple values (i.e., monadic polytomous\nevents). It extends previous work on pattern-based deviations\nfrom standard (extensional) probabilities. Pattern-probabilities\nare formalized in Bayesian Logic (BL) and should be\napplicable when testing the overall adequacy of alternative\nlogical hypotheses while allowing for exceptions. BL\nsystematically predicts ‘conjunction fallacies’ (CFs) and,\nmore generally, ‘inclusion fallacies’ (IFs), when a subset is\ndeemed more probable than its superset. BL formalizes a fit\nbetween data and explanatory noisy-logical patterns and was\nsupported in previous experiments on dyadic logical\nconnectives with two dichotomous events. Here BL is\nextended to monadic prediction with several subclasses. BL\nmay for instance predict Ppattern(A) > Ppattern(non-A) even\nthough f(A) < f(non-A), given that non-A has more subclasses\nthan A. Two experiments using material from the Linda\nparadigm corroborate a pattern approach and rule out\nconfirmation as an alternative explanation.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "probability judgments; biases; conjunction\nfallacy; inclusion fallacy; inductive Bayesian logics;\npredication; strong sampling; categories; Lockean Thesis"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/16n762gr",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Momme",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "von Sydow",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Heidelberg",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2015-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/25800/galley/15424/download/"
        }
    ]
}