Article Instance

HTTP 200 OK
Allow: GET
Content-Type: application/json
Vary: Accept

{
    "pk": 25821,
    "title": "Reducing overconfidence in forecasting with repeated judgement elicitation",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Overconfidence is the tendency for people to underestimate\nthe true range of uncertainty regarding unknown or future\nvalues. It results in observed outcomes falling outside\npeople’s estimated ranges more often than their stated\nconfidence would suggest. Previous research has, however,\ndemonstrated various ways of reducing this bias and the\nMore-Or-Less-Elicitation (MOLE) tool has been designed to\ntake these into account while leading people through an\nelicitation. Previous research showed MOLE’s benefit on a\nvisual estimation task but real world elicitation is more likely\nto involve forecasting future values. The current study\ncompared forecast ranges, for 7 and 28 day windows, elicited\nvia the MOLE and direct estimation. A significant reduction\nin overconfidence (the mismatch between stated confidence\nand the proportion of ranges containing the true value) was\nobserved – from more than 25% to only 7%. We conclude\nthat the MOLE is a useful tool for assisting forecasting.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "repeated judgement; elicitation; calibration;\noverconfidence; MOLE"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0nq276b9",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Mathew",
            "middle_name": "Brian",
            "last_name": "Welsh",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Adelaide",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Steve",
            "middle_name": "H",
            "last_name": "Begg",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Adelaide",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2015-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/25821/galley/15445/download/"
        }
    ]
}