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{
    "pk": 26079,
    "title": "Using Prior Data to Inform Model Parameters\nin the Predictive Performance Equation",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "The predictive performance equation (PPE) is a mathematical\nmodel of learning and retention that attempts to capitalize on the\nregularities seen in human learning to predict future performance.\nTo generate predictions, PPE’s free parameters must be calibrated\nto a minimum amount of historical performance data, leaving PPE\nunable to generate valid predictions for initial learning events. We\nexamined the feasibility of using the data from other individuals,\nwho performed the same task in the past, to inform PPE’s free\nparameters for new individuals (prior-informed predictions). This\napproach could enable earlier and more accurate performance\npredictions. To assess the predictive validity of this methodology,\nthe accuracy of PPE’s individualized and prior-informed\npredictions before the point in time where PPE can be fully\ncalibrated using an individual’s unique performance history. Our\nresults show that the prior data can be used to inform PPE’s free\nparameters, allowing earlier performance predictions to be made.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Mathematical model; Performance predictions; Skill\nlearning; Parameter generalization; Educational data mining"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1hn733kx",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Michael",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Collins",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Air Force Research Laboratory",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Kevin",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Gluck",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Air Force Research Laboratory",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Mathew",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Walsh",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "TiER1 Performance Solutions",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Michael",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Krusmark",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Air Force Research Laboratory",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Glenn",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Gunzelmann",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Air Force Research Laboratory",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2016-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/26079/galley/15715/download/"
        }
    ]
}