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{
    "pk": 26132,
    "title": "‘Unlikely’ Outcomes Might Never Occur, But What About\n‘Unlikely (20% Chance)’ Outcomes?",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "A commonly suggested solution to reduce misinterpretations\nof verbal probability expressions in risk communications is to\nuse a verbal-numerical (mixed format) approach, but it is not\nknown whether this increases understanding over and above a\npurely numerical format. Using the ‘which outcome’\nmethodology (Teigen & Filkuková, 2013), we examined the\neffect of using verbal, numerical and mixed communication\nformats, as well as investigating whether marking outcomes as\nsalient would alter the outcomes people perceived as ‘unlikely’\nor having a 20% chance of occurring. We observed no effect\nof saliency, but replicated previous findings, with general\npreference for values at the high end of a distribution (including\nmaximum/above maximum values) present in both verbal and\nmixed communication formats. This demonstrates the\nrelevance of these findings for real-world consequential risk\ncommunication. Whilst the estimates differed between the\nmixed and numerical formats, we found that the mixed format\nyielded the more accurate estimates.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "verbal probability expressions; numerical\nprobabilities; risk communication; geological hazards"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8wk139ct",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Sarah",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Jenkins",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University College London",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Adam",
            "middle_name": "J. L.",
            "last_name": "Harris",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University College London",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "R.M",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Lark",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "British Geological Survey",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2016-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/26132/galley/15768/download/"
        }
    ]
}