Article Instance

HTTP 200 OK
Allow: GET
Content-Type: application/json
Vary: Accept

{
    "pk": 26511,
    "title": "What does the crowd believe? A hierarchical approach to estimating subjectivebeliefs from empirical data",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "People’s beliefs about everyday events are both of theoreti-cal interest in their own right and an important ingredient inmodel building—especially in Bayesian cognitive models ofphenomena such as logical reasoning, future predictions, andlanguage use. Here, we explore several recently used methodsfor measuring subjective beliefs about unidimensional contigu-ous properties, such as the likely price of a new watch. Asa first step towards a way of assessing and comparing beliefelicitation methods, we use hierarchical Bayesian modeling forinferring likely population-level beliefs as the central tendencyof participants’ individual-level beliefs. Three different depen-dent measures are considered: (i) slider ratings of (relative)likelihood of intervals of values, (ii) a give-a-number task, and(iii) choice of the more likely of two intervals of values. Ourresults suggest that using averaged normalized slider ratingsfor binned quantities is a practical and fairly good approxima-tor of inferred population-level beliefs.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "subjective beliefs"
        },
        {
            "word": "hierarchical modeling"
        },
        {
            "word": "Bayesian data analysis"
        },
        {
            "word": "Bayesian cognitive modelsv"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4sf6p70s",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Michael",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Franke",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Fabian",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Dablander",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Anthea",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Sch ̈oller",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Erin",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Bennett",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Stanford University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Judith",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Degen",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Stanford University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Michael",
            "middle_name": "Henry",
            "last_name": "Tessler",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Stanford University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Justine",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Kao",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Stanford University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Noah",
            "middle_name": "D.",
            "last_name": "Goodman",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Stanford University",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2016-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/26511/galley/16147/download/"
        }
    ]
}