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{
    "pk": 26920,
    "title": "The impact of descriptions and incentives on the simultaneous underweighting and\noverestimation of rare events",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "We replicate and extend work demonstrating that choice and\nprobability estimation can be dissociated through the coexistence\nof contradictory reactions to rare events. In the context of\nexperience-based risky choice, we find the simultaneous\nunderweighting of rare events in choice and their overestimation\nin probability judgement. This tendency persisted in the presence\nof accurate descriptions of rare event occurrence (Experiment 1),\nbut was attenuated by incentivizing accurate probability\nestimates (Experiment 2). The implications of these results for\npopular models of risky choice are briefly discussed.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Decisions from experience; probability estimation;\nrisky choice; underweighting."
        }
    ],
    "section": "Talks: Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/18f3m355",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Garston",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Liang",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of New South Wales",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Emmanouil",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Konstantinidis",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of New South Wales",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Aba",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Szollosi",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of New South Wales",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Christopher",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Donkin",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of New South Wales",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Ben",
            "middle_name": "R.",
            "last_name": "Newell",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of New South Wales",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2017-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/26920/galley/16556/download/"
        }
    ]
}