Article Instance

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{
    "pk": 27015,
    "title": "The statistical significance filter leads to overconfident expectations of replicability",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "We show that publishing results using the statistical signif-icance filter—publishing only when the p-value is less than0.05—leads to a vicious cycle of overoptimistic expectationof the replicability of results. First, we show analytically thatwhen true statistical power is relatively low, computing powerbased on statistically significant results will lead to overesti-mates of power. Then, we present a case study using 10 exper-imental comparisons drawn from a recently published meta-analysis in psycholinguistics (J ̈ager et al., 2017). We show thatthe statistically significant results yield an illusion of replica-bility. This illusion holds even if the researcher doesn’t con-duct any formal power analysis but just uses statistical signifi-cance to informally assess robustness (i.e., replicability) of re-sults.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Statistical significance; p-values; replicability"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Talks: Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2mc3x8dc",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Shravan",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Vasishth",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Potsdam,",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Andrew",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Gelman",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Columbia University",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2017-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/27015/galley/16651/download/"
        }
    ]
}