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{
    "pk": 27102,
    "title": "Equiprobability principle or “no change” principle? Examining reasoning in the\nMonty Hall Dilemma using unequal probabilities",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a well-known cognitive\nillusion. It is often claimed that one reason for the incorrect\nanswers is that people apply the equiprobability principle: they\nassume that the probability of the two remaining options must\nbe equal. An alternative explanation for assigning the same\nprobabilities to options is that they had the same prior\nprobabilities and people perceive no significant change.\nStandard MHD versions do not distinguish these possibilities,\nbut a version with unequal prior probabilities could.\nParticipants were given an unequal probabilities version of\nMHD and told that either the high or low probability option had\nbeen eliminated. This affected participants’ choices and their\nposterior probabilities. Only 14% of participants’ responses\nwere consistent with applying the equiprobability principle, but\n51% were consistent with a “no change” principle. Participants\nwere sensitive to the implications of the prior probabilities but\ndid not appear to use Bayesian updating.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Monty Hall Dilemma"
        },
        {
            "word": "probabilistic reasoning"
        },
        {
            "word": "cognitive illusions"
        },
        {
            "word": "cognitive reflection"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Posters: Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/16c8r91c",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Bruce",
            "middle_name": "D.",
            "last_name": "Burns",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Sydney",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2017-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/27102/galley/16738/download/"
        }
    ]
}