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{
    "pk": 28137,
    "title": "Over-representation of Extreme Events in Decision-Making: A Rational Metacognitive Account",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "The Availability bias, manifested in the over-representation ofextreme eventualities, is a well-known cognitive bias, and isgenerally taken as evidence of human irrationality. In thiswork, we present the first rational, metacognitive account ofthe Availability bias, formally articulated at Marr’s algorith-mic level of analysis. Concretely, we present a normative,metacognitive model of how a cognitive system should over-represent extreme eventualities, depending on the amount oftime available for decision-making. Our Sample-based Ex-pected Utility model also accounts for two well-known fram-ing effects in human decision-making under risk—the fourfoldpattern of risk preferences in outcome probability (Tversky& Kahneman, 1992) and in outcome magnitude (Markovitz,1952)—thereby providing the first metacognitively-rationalbasis for the aforementioned effects. Empirical evidence con-firms an important prediction of our model. Surprisingly, ourmodel is strikingly robust with respect to its focal parameter.We discuss the implications of our work for studies on hu-man decision-making, and conclude by presenting a counter-intuitive prediction of our model, which, if confirmed, wouldhave intriguing implications for human decision-making un-der risk. To our knowledge, our model is the first metacog-nitive, resource-rational process model of cognitive biases indecision-making. Notably, our work also contributes to thefields of artificial intelligence and computational statistics, bypresenting a previously unknown proposal distribution, withfirm rational grounds, broadly applicable to the influential sub-field of importance sampling Monte Carlo methods.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Availability bias; Decision-making under uncer-tainty and risk; Metacognitively rational models; Fourfold pat-tern of risk preferences"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Publication-based-Talks",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/85p7246k",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Ardavan",
            "middle_name": "S",
            "last_name": "Nobandegani",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "McGill",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Kevin",
            "middle_name": "da Silva",
            "last_name": "Castanheira",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "McGill",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "A. Ross",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Otto",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "McGill",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Thomas",
            "middle_name": "R",
            "last_name": "Schultz",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "McGill",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2018-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/28137/galley/17796/download/"
        }
    ]
}