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{
    "pk": 28475,
    "title": "A New Probabilistic Explanation of the Modus Ponens–Modus Tollens Asymmetry",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "A consistent finding in research on conditional reasoning isthat individuals are more likely to endorse the valid modus po-nens (MP) inference than the equally valid modus tollens (MT)inference. This pattern holds for both abstract task and prob-abilistic task. The existing explanation for this phenomenonwithin a Bayesian framework (e.g., Oaksford & Chater, 2008)accounts for this asymmetry by assuming separate probabil-ity distributions for both MP and MT. We propose a novelexplanation within a computational-level Bayesian account ofreasoning according to which “argumentation is learning”.We show that the asymmetry must appear for certain priorprobability distributions, under the assumption that the condi-tional inference provides the agent with new information thatis integrated into the existing knowledge by minimizing theKullback-Leibler divergence between the posterior and priorprobability distribution. We also show under which conditionswe would expect the opposite pattern, an MT-MP asymmetry.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "conditional reasoning; probabilistic reasoning;Bayesian model; computational-level account"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers with Oral Presentations",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0775b50h",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Benjamin",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Eva",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Univeristy of Konstanz",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Stephan",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Hartmann",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "LMU Munich",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Henrik",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Singmann",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Warwick",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2019-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/28475/galley/18346/download/"
        }
    ]
}