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{ "pk": 28579, "title": "Deception in evidential reasoning: Willful deceit or honest mistake?", "subtitle": null, "abstract": "How does one deal with the possibility of deception? Extant\nliterature has mostly focused on identifying deception via cue\ndetection. However, how we reason about the possibility of\ndeception remains under-explored. We use a novel formalism\nto expose the complexity of this reasoning problem (e.g.\nseparating the uncertainty of an honest mistake, from willful\ndeception), in the process highlighting several reasoning\nerrors regarding deception. Notably, we show reasoners to\nmake substantial errors when reasoning about a (possibly)\ndeceptive source in isolation (including base rate neglect\nerrors), but find that reasoning improves when further\n(independently sourced) corroborative or contradicting reports\nare introduced.", "language": "eng", "license": { "name": "", "short_name": "", "text": null, "url": "" }, "keywords": [ { "word": "deception; evidential reasoning; probabilistic\nreasoning; Bayesian Networks; belief updating" } ], "section": "Papers with Oral Presentations", "is_remote": true, "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1rc3p7t0", "frozenauthors": [ { "first_name": "Toby", "middle_name": "D.", "last_name": "Pilditch", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "University College London", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Alexander", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Fries", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "University College London", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "David", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Lagnado", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "University College London", "department": "" } ], "date_submitted": null, "date_accepted": null, "date_published": "2019-01-01T18:00:00Z", "render_galley": null, "galleys": [ { "label": "PDF", "type": "pdf", "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/28579/galley/18450/download/" } ] }