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{
    "pk": 28816,
    "title": "What’s in the Adaptive Toolbox and How Do People Choose From It? RationalModels of Strategy Selection in Risky Choice",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Although process data indicate that people often rely on sim-plifying processes when choosing between risky options, cur-rent models of heuristics cannot predict people’s choices veryaccurately. To address this apparent paradox, it has been pro-posed that people might adaptively choose from a toolboxof simple strategies. But which strategies are contained inthis toolbox? And how do people decide when to use whichdecision strategy? Here, we develop a model according towhich the decision maker selects a decision strategy for a givenchoice problem rationally from a toolbox of strategies; the con-tent of the toolbox is estimated for each individual decisionmaker. Using cross-validation on an empirical data set, we findthat this model of strategy selection from a personal adaptivetoolbox predicts people’s choices better than any single strat-egy (even when it is allowed to vary across participants) andbetter than previously proposed toolbox models. Our modelcomparisons show that both inferring the content of the tool-box and rational strategy selection are critical for accuratelypredicting people’s risky choices. Furthermore, our analysisreveals considerable individual differences in the set of strate-gies people are equipped with and how they choose amongthem; these individual differences could partly explain whysome people make better choices than others. These findingsrepresent an important step towards a complete formalizationof the notion that people select their cognitive strategies froma personal adaptive toolbox.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "decision making; bounded rationality; strategy se-lection; heuristics; computational modeling"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers with Poster Presentations",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/67d2w5vw",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Florian",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Mohnert",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Amsterdam",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Thorsten",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Pachur",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Max Planck Institute for Human Development",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Falk",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Lieder",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2019-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/28816/galley/18687/download/"
        }
    ]
}