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{
    "pk": 28903,
    "title": "Explanation Versus Prediction: Statistical Differences in Detecting Fraudulent\nEvents Do Not Necessarily Have Predictive Power",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "A large body of research in the cognitive sciences relies on\nexamining statistical differences. While the approach of\nexamining differences can aid in explaining behavior, it does\nnot necessarily mean that these differences have predictive\npower. Yet, understanding behavior both involves explaining\nand predicting behavior. As a point in case, the current study\nused a naturalistic email dataset to examine statistical\ndifferences and predictive power in fraudulent activities.\nDifferences between 1st and 3rd person pronoun use in liars and\npeople telling the truth are widely reported in the literature. The\ncurrent study aimed to test for the effect of fraudulent events\non pronoun use in emails using the Enron corpus and\nadditionally applied a machine learning approach to estimate\nwhether pronoun use predicts fraud. While the ratio between\n1st and 3rd person pronoun use was related to fraud, this\nconstruct did not have predictive power. The current study\nhighlights an important conclusion for the cognitive sciences:\nThe importance of not only testing for differences, but of also\napplying predictive models. In this way it can be determined\nwhether effects of a construct on an outcome can also predict\nthe outcome.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "corpus linguistics; machine learning; deception;\npronouns"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers with Poster Presentations",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1xm754bd",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Angelica",
            "middle_name": "M.",
            "last_name": "Tinga",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Tilburg University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Welmoed",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Kuperus",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Tilburg University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Maira",
            "middle_name": "B.",
            "last_name": "Carvalho",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Tilburg University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Max",
            "middle_name": "M.",
            "last_name": "Louwerse",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Tilburg University",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2019-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/28903/galley/18774/download/"
        }
    ]
}