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{
    "pk": 29233,
    "title": "Testing human use of probability in a visuo-motor conjunction task",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "People overestimate the conjunctive probability of independent events (Bar Hillel, 1973). We examined conjunctive per-formance in a task involving motor uncertainty and binomial sampling. Human probabilistic judgment is typically near-optimal with either of these sources of uncertainty alone. Four subjects attempted to earn rewards by reaching to circulartargets. They chose between a single smaller target and one of N larger targets. Hitting the single target always earned areward but only one on the N larger targets was rewarded: they chose between P[Smaller] and the conjunctive probability(1/N)*P[Larger] as we varied N and the sizes of the targets. The ideal observer should be indifferent when P[Smaller] =(1/N)*P[Larger]. We also asked observers to estimate the probability of hitting targets of different sizes to verify that theycould do so accurately. Remarkably, three out of four observers ignored numerosity N in their preferences.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [],
    "section": "Member Abstracts",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/40f5c4vc",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Laurence",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Maloney",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "New York University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Jinsoo",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Kim",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "New York University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Keiji",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Ota",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "New York University",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2019-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/29233/galley/19104/download/"
        }
    ]
}