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{
    "pk": 29324,
    "title": "Bayesian Inference Causes Incoherence in Human Probability Judgments",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Human probability judgements appear systematically biased, in apparent tension with Bayesian models of cognition. Butperhaps the brain does not represent probabilities explicitly, but approximates probabilistic calculations through a processof sampling, as used in computational probabilistic models in statistics. The Bayesian sampling viewpoint provides asimple rational model of probability judgements, which generates biases such as conservatism. The Bayesian samplerprovides a single framework for explaining phenomena associated with diverse biases and heuristics, including availabilityand representativeness. The approach turns out to provide a rational reinterpretation of noise in an important recent modelof probability judgement, the probability theory plus noise model (Costello & Watts, 2014; 2016; 2017; Costello, Watts,& Fisher, 2018), and captures the empirical data supporting this model.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [],
    "section": "Member Abstracts",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/11g9c4bd",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Jianqiao",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Zhu",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Warwick",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Adam",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Sanborn",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Warwick",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Nicholas",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Chater",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Warwick",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2019-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
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            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/29324/galley/19195/download/"
        }
    ]
}