Article Instance

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{
    "pk": 29412,
    "title": "Illusory causal connections and their effect on subjective probability",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Our world is filled with statistical information: from dice rolls to\nlotteries, we often act based on our impressions of probability. Yet\nthe human mind is not wired to reason about truly probabilistic\nevents, often imposing structure on data or events where no such\nstructure exists (as in ‘illusory correlations’). Here, we consider a\ncase study in intuitive statistics: disjunctive events. For example,\nparticipants are asked to imagine a button that, when pressed, has a\n1 in 100 chance of yielding a prize. They are told to imagine\npressing that button 100 times. Across several paradigms, we show\nthat people overestimate the probability of this disjunctive event —\nin stark contrast to classic demonstrations where people\nunderestimate such probabilities (e.g., when iteratively selecting\nmarbles from jars with replacement). These results reflect a\ntendency to view events as causally connected in illusory ways;\nimplications for other domains of reasoning are discussed.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Intuitive statistics"
        },
        {
            "word": "disjunctive events; probability;\nreasoning; decision-making; reservoir fallacy"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Events, Actions, and Sequencing",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6h0075tn",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Sami",
            "middle_name": "R.",
            "last_name": "Yousif",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Yale University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Frank",
            "middle_name": "C.",
            "last_name": "Keil",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Yale University",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2020-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/29412/galley/19272/download/"
        }
    ]
}