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{
    "pk": 29425,
    "title": "Loss Functions Modulate the Optimal Bias-Variance Trade-off",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Prediction problems vary in the extent to which accuracy isrewarded and inaccuracy is penalized—i.e., in their loss func-tions. Here, we focus on a particular feature of loss functionsthat controls how much large errors are penalized relative tohow much precise correctness is rewarded: convexity. Weshow that prediction problems with convex loss functions (i.e.,those in which large errors are particularly harmful) favor sim-pler models that tend to be biased, but exhibit low variability.Conversely, problems with concave loss functions (in whichprecise correctness is particularly rewarded) favor more com-plex models that are less biased, but exhibit higher variabil-ity. We discuss how this relationship between the bias-variancetrade-off and the shape of the loss function may help explainfeatures of human psychology, such as dual-process psychol-ogy and fast versus slow learning strategies, and inform statis-tical inference.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Judgment; decision-making; dual-process theory;statistics"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Complex Dynamics",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0cw501c4",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Adam",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Bear",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Harvard University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Fiery",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Cushman",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Harvard University",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2020-01-01T13:00:00-05:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/29425/galley/19285/download/"
        }
    ]
}