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{
    "pk": 29714,
    "title": "Do people fit to Benford’s law, or do they have a Benford bias?",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Smith (2015) describes an explosion of interest in Benford’s\nlaw, that for data from many domains the first digits have a log\ndistribution. Few studies have similarly asked whether the\nnumbers people generate fit to Benford’s law, but recent data\nshow a reasonable fit. This paper argues that testing for fit to\nBenford’s law is the wrong question for behavioural data,\ninstead we should think in terms of a “Benford bias” in which\nthe first-digit distribution is distorted towards Benford’s law.\nWe propose calculating the effect size of this bias by testing a\nlinear contrast weighted by Benford’s law. Analyses of existing\ndata sets yielded effect sizes of 0.43-0.52. Applying this\napproach to a new task extended the scope of Benford bias to\npredicting outputs of a linear system and found an effect size\nof .40. Benford bias may be a ubiquitous influence on\njudgments and decisions based on numbers.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Benford’s law"
        },
        {
            "word": "decision making"
        },
        {
            "word": "Judgment"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Poster Session 1",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2hx5f2rx",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Bruce",
            "middle_name": "D.",
            "last_name": "Burns",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Sydney",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2020-01-01T10:00:00-08:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/29714/galley/19571/download/"
        }
    ]
}