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{
    "pk": 29825,
    "title": "Configurative Weighting as a Two-Plane Approximation of Bayesian Estimates",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Configurative weighting and adding can be a surprisingly effective approximation of multiplicative functions. In thecontext of joint probability judgment, Nilsson et al. (2009) has shown that, when marginal probabilities are only approxi-mately known, the configurative weighted average (CWA) of two probabilities not only predicts a high level of conjunctionfallacies, as observed in data, but also correlates higher with the true joint probability than if the two probabilities are mul-tiplied. Here we show that [1] the surface representing the optimal Bayesian estimate of a joint probability can be closelyapproximated by two planes, [2] configurative weighting and adding, such as the CWA model, constitutes such a two-planeapproximation, and [3] a bias-variance tradeoff is not sufficient to explain the accuracy of the CWA. More generally, thissuggests that the efficiency of heuristics might be due to suitable weighting operations rather than less-is-more effects.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [],
    "section": "Poster Session 2",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8tr4d934",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Joakim",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Sundh",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Warwick",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Jerker",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Denrell",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Warwick",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2020-01-01T21:00:00+03:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/29825/galley/19679/download/"
        }
    ]
}