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{ "pk": 30488, "title": "Should we use Probability in Uncertain Inference Systems", "subtitle": null, "abstract": "Criticisms of probability as being epistenxjlogically inadequate as a basis for\nreasoning under uncertainty in Al and rule-based expert systems are largely\nmisplaced. Probabilistic schemes appear to be the best way to deal with\ndependent evidence, and to properly combine diagnostic and predictive inference.\nSuggestions that expert systems should duplicate human inference strategies, with\ntheir documented biases, seem ill-advised. There is evidence that popular\nschemes perform quite poorly under some circumstances and there is an urgent\nneed for careful study of when they can be relied upon. Some promising\nprobabilistic alternatives are available, but they need to be demonstrated in\nrealistic applications.", "language": "eng", "license": { "name": "", "short_name": "", "text": null, "url": "" }, "keywords": [], "section": "Presented Papers", "is_remote": true, "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3jh818t9", "frozenauthors": [ { "first_name": "Max", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Henrion", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Carnegie Mellion University", "department": "" } ], "date_submitted": null, "date_accepted": null, "date_published": "1986-01-01T18:00:00Z", "render_galley": null, "galleys": [ { "label": "PDF", "type": "pdf", "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/30488/galley/20337/download/" } ] }