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{
    "pk": 33094,
    "title": "How to Make the Impossible Seem Probable",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "The mental model theory postulates that reasoners build \nmodels of the situations described in premises. A \nconclusion is possible if it occurs in at least one model; it \nis probable if occurs in most models; and it is necessary if \nit occurs in all models. The theory also postulates that \nreasoners represent as much information as possible in \nimplicit models. Experiment 1 showed that, as predicted, \nconclusions about possible situations tend to correspond \nto explicit models rather than to implicit models. \nExperiment 2 yielded a discovery: there are illusory \ninferences with conclusions that seem plausible but that are \nin reality gross errors. In such cases, as the model theory \npredicts, subjects judge as the more probable of two events \none that is impossible. For example, given that only one \nof the following two assertions is true: \nThere is a king or an ace in the hand, or both. \nThere is a queen or an ace in the hand, or both. \nsubjects judge that the ace is more likely to be in the hand \nthan the king. In fact, it is impossible for an ace to be in \nthe hand.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [],
    "section": "17",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/04q814bm",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Philip",
            "middle_name": "N.",
            "last_name": "Johnson-Laird",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Princeton University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Fabien",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Savary",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Princeton University",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "1995-01-01T10:00:00-08:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/33094/galley/24155/download/"
        }
    ]
}