Article Instance

HTTP 200 OK
Allow: GET
Content-Type: application/json
Vary: Accept

{
    "pk": 38211,
    "title": "Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "In the current paper we investigate the relation between secular cycles and millennial trends. The tests we have performed suggest that the structure of millennial trends cannot be adequately understood without secular cycles being taken into consideration. At a certain level of analysis millennial trends turn out to be a virtual byproduct of the demographic cycle mechanisms, which turn out to incorporate certain trend-creating mechanisms. Demographic-political cycle models can serve as a basis for the development and testing of models accounting not only for cycles but also for secular trends. In order to do this, we suggest to alter the basic assumptions of the earlier generations of demographic cycle models (that both the carrying capacity of land and the polity size are constant). The variables such as carrying capacity of land, cultural complexity, and empire sizes are actually not constant, but rather experience long-term trend dynamics in the rise, and the new generation of models needs to account for this fact.",
    "language": "en",
    "license": {
        "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0",
        "short_name": "CC BY 4.0",
        "text": "Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.\n\nNo additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.",
        "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0"
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Demographic Structural Theory"
        },
        {
            "word": "Secular cycles"
        },
        {
            "word": "Millennial Trends"
        },
        {
            "word": "population growth"
        },
        {
            "word": "carrying capacity"
        },
        {
            "word": "Imperial Expansion"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Reports",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0xt1v06c",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Andrey",
            "middle_name": "V",
            "last_name": "Korotayev",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "National Research University Higher School of Economics",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Julia",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Zinkina",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Alexey",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Andreev",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Moscow State University",
            "department": "None"
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": "2016-03-28T17:45:14Z",
    "date_accepted": "2016-03-28T17:45:14Z",
    "date_published": "2016-12-31T08:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cliodynamics/article/38211/galley/28763/download/"
        }
    ]
}