Article Instance

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{
    "pk": 38368,
    "title": "Political Stress Index of Poland",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "<p>We apply the political stress index as introduced by Boldstone (1991) and implemented by Turchin (2013), to the case study of Poland. The approach quantifies political and social unrest as a single quantity based on a multitude of economic and demographic variables. The present-day data allow us to directly apply index without the need of simulating the elite component, as was done previously. Neither model version shows appreciable unrest levels for the present, while the simulated model applied to partial historical data yields the index in remarkable agreement with the fall of communism in Poland.We next analyze the model's sensitive dependence on its parameters (the hallmark of chaos), which limits its utility and application to other countries. The original equations cannot, by construction, describe the elite fraction for longer time-periods; and we  propose a modification to remedy this problem. The model still holds some predictive power, but we argue that some components should be reinterpreted if one wants to keep its dynamical equations.</p>",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0",
        "short_name": "CC BY 4.0",
        "text": "Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.\n\nNo additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.",
        "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0"
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "class mobility"
        },
        {
            "word": "demographic models"
        },
        {
            "word": "elite competition"
        },
        {
            "word": "income satisfaction"
        },
        {
            "word": "logistic equation"
        },
        {
            "word": "political stress index"
        },
        {
            "word": "regime change"
        },
        {
            "word": "social unrest"
        },
        {
            "word": "unrest indicator"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Article",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1gs8r11g",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Tomasz",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Stachowiak",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Zbigniew",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Pasek",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Other",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": "2024-06-27T12:24:29+06:00",
    "date_accepted": "2025-06-01T03:47:53.699000+06:00",
    "date_published": "2025-01-01T03:50:00+06:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cliodynamics/article/38368/galley/48143/download/"
        }
    ]
}