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{
    "pk": 49904,
    "title": "Predicting Human Choice Between Textually Described Lotteries",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Predicting human decision-making under risk and uncertainty is a long-standing challenge in cognitive science, economics, and AI. While prior research has focused on numerically described lotteries, real-world decisions often rely on textual descriptions. This study conducts the first large-scale exploration of human decision-making in such tasks using a large dataset of one-shot binary choices between textually described lotteries. We evaluate multiple computational approaches, including fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs), leveraging embeddings, and integrating behavioral theories of choice under risk. Our results show that fine-tuned LLMs, specifically  GPT-4o, outperform hybrid models that incorporate behavioral theory, challenging established methods in numerical settings. These findings highlight fundamental differences in how textual and numerical information influence decision-making and underscore the need for new modeling strategies to bridge this gap.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Artificial Intelligence; Decision making; Machine learning; Natural Language Processing; Computational Modeling"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers with Poster Presentation",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7838t9zr",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Eyal",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Marantz",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Technion - Israel Institute of Technology",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Ori",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Plonsky",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Technion - Israel Institute of Technology",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/49904/galley/37866/download/"
        }
    ]
}