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{
    "pk": 62405,
    "title": "From Climate-change Spaghetti to Climate-change Distributions for 21st-Century California",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "The uncertainties associated with climate-change projections for California are unlikely to disappear any time soon, and yet important long-term decisions will be needed to accommodate those potential changes. Projection uncertainties have typically been addressed by analysis of a few scenarios, chosen based on availability or to capture the extreme cases among available projections. However, by focusing on more common projections rather than the most extreme projections (using a new resampling method), new insights into current projections emerge: (1) uncertainties associated with future greenhouse-gas emissions are comparable with the differences among climate models, so that neither source of uncertainties should be neglected or underrepresented; (2) twenty-first century temperature projections spread more, overall, than do precipitation scenarios; (3) projections of extremely wet futures for California are true outliers among current projections; and (4) current projections that are warmest tend, overall, to yield a moderately drier California, while the cooler projections yield a somewhat wetter future. The resampling approach applied in this paper also provides a natural opportunity to objectively incorporate measures of model skill and the likelihoods of various emission scenarios into future assessments.",
    "language": "en",
    "license": {
        "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0",
        "short_name": "CC BY 4.0",
        "text": "Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.\n\nNo additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.",
        "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0"
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "California"
        },
        {
            "word": "climate change"
        },
        {
            "word": "temperature"
        },
        {
            "word": "precipitation"
        },
        {
            "word": "streamflow"
        },
        {
            "word": "statistical methods"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Research Article",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2pg6c039",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Michael",
            "middle_name": "D.",
            "last_name": "Dettinger",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "U.S. Geological Survey",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": "2005-03-01T00:00:00-08:00",
    "date_accepted": "2005-03-01T00:00:00-08:00",
    "date_published": "2005-03-02T00:00:00-08:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/jmie_sfews/article/62405/galley/48234/download/"
        }
    ]
}