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{ "pk": 62921, "title": "Atmospheric Rivers and Floods in California’s Changing Hydroclimate", "subtitle": null, "abstract": "Flooding in the Bay–Delta is most commonly due to runoff from atmospheric river (AR) storms, often enhanced by low-elevation snowmelt. In this paper, we review the current science of ARs and their projected enhancement in a warming climate. We also address the changing state of the Sierra Nevada snowpack. Climate-model projections indicate increasing contributions to extreme precipitation from ARs, and more variable hydroclimate, with increased floods as well as droughts. Observations, meanwhile, do not yet show enhanced precipitation intensity trends. In agreement with climate-model projections, observations do show that, as the climate continues to warm, California’s greatest natural freshwater reservoir—its snowpack—continues to erode. This is despite record snowpacks (e.g., 2023) still being possible, and potentially exacerbating flood effects from ARs in a highly variable hydroclimate. Original analysis of extreme historical and projected precipitation events shows events of the magnitude associated with the New Year 1997 floods are expected to become twice as likely by the late 21st century.\n \nMoreover, as extreme precipitation events are expected to become wetter, hydrologic modeling suggests that extreme runoff events will be disproportionately enhanced, primarily as the result of a greater fraction of rain vs. snow. We also discuss the mitigating influence of water management on extreme flows, and mention new research results, challenges, and opportunities associated with sub-seasonal and seasonal precipitation predictability. We suggest that—along with infrastructural modernization, as well as maintenance and improvement of observational networks—current and future challenges for water management can be mitigated by better and longer lead-time weather and climate-forecast information.", "language": "en", "license": { "name": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0", "short_name": "CC BY 4.0", "text": "Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.\n\nNo additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0" }, "keywords": [ { "word": "atmospheric rivers, hydroclimate, climate change, extreme precipitation, snowpack, extreme runoff, flooding, flood risk, water resources, California" } ], "section": "The State of Bay-Delta Science 2025, Part 2", "is_remote": true, "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1kw1d94p", "frozenauthors": [ { "first_name": "Alexander", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Gershunov", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nUniversity of California—San Diego\nSan Diego, CA 92093 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Benjamin", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Hatchett", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Colorado State University\nFort Collins, CO 80523 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Alexander", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Weyant", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nUniversity of California—San Diego\nSan Diego, CA 92093 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Michael", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Dettinger", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nUniversity of California—San Diego\nSan Diego, CA 92093 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Lu", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Su", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nUniversity of California—San Diego\nSan Diego, CA 92093 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Alan", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Rhoades", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory\nBerkeley, CA 94720 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Park", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Williams", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "University of California–Los Angeles\nLos Angeles, CA 90095 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Michael", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Anderson", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "California Department of Water Resources\nSacramento, CA 95814 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Pamela", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Rittelmeyer", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "California Department of Water Resources\nSacramento, CA 95814 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Dennis", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Lettenmayer", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "University of California–Los Angeles\nLos Angeles, CA 90095 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Daniel", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Cayan", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nUniversity of California—San Diego\nSan Diego, CA 92093 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Rosa Luna", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Niño", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nUniversity of California—San Diego\nSan Diego, CA 92093 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Kristen", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Guirguis", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nUniversity of California—San Diego\nSan Diego, CA 92093 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Tom", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Corringham", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nUniversity of California—San Diego\nSan Diego, CA 92093 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Romain", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Maendly", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "California Department of Water Resources\nSacramento, CA 95814 USA", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "F. Martin", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Ralph", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Scripps Institution of Oceanography\nUniversity of California—San Diego\nSan Diego, CA 92093 USA", "department": "" } ], "date_submitted": "2025-08-24T03:27:54Z", "date_accepted": "2025-08-24T03:27:54Z", "date_published": "2025-08-28T07:00:00Z", "render_galley": null, "galleys": [ { "label": "", "type": "pdf", "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/jmie_sfews/article/62921/galley/48607/download/" } ] }