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{
    "pk": 24151,
    "title": "Thinking in proportions rather than probabilities facilitates Bayesian reasoning",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Bayesian reasoning tasks require processing data in proba-bilistic situations to revise risk estimations. Such tasks are difficult when data is presented in terms of single-event probabilities; the multiplicative combination of priors and likelihoods often is disregarded, resulting in er-roneous strategies such as prior neglect or averaging heu-ristics. Proportions (relative frequencies) are computation-ally equivalent to probabilities. However, proportions are connected to natural mental representations (so-called ra-tio sense). Mental representations of nested proportions (70% of 20%) allow for a mental operation that corre-sponds to a multiplicative combination of percentages. In two studies, we focused on the conceptual understanding underlying Bayesian reasoning by utilizing graphical rep-resentations without numbers (to avoid calculations with percentages). We showed that verbally framing Bayesian tasks in terms of proportions, as opposed to single-event probabilities, increased correct Bayesian judgment, and re-duced averaging heuristics. Thus, we claim, proportions can be regarded as a natural view on normalized Bayesian situations.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Education; Psychology; Decision making; Reasoning; Bayesian modeling"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers with Poster Presentation",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4p61c93w",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Katharina",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Loibl",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Education Freiburg",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Timo",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Leuders",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Education Freiburg",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2024-01-01T15:00:00-03:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
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            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24151/galley/13747/download/"
        },
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24151/galley/21663/download/"
        }
    ]
}