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{ "pk": 24222, "title": "Opinion Averaging versus Argument Exchange", "subtitle": null, "abstract": "Opinion averaging is a common means of judgment aggregation that is employed in the service of crowd wisdom effects. In this paper, we use simulations with agent-based models to highlight contexts in which opinion averaging leads to poor outcomes. Specifically, we illustrate the conditions under which the optimal posterior prescribed by a normative model of Bayesian argument exchange diverges from the mean belief that would be arrived at via simple averaging. The theoretical and practical implications of this are discussed.", "language": "eng", "license": { "name": "", "short_name": "", "text": null, "url": "" }, "keywords": [ { "word": "Philosophy; Psychology; Agent-based Modeling; Bayesian modeling" } ], "section": "Papers with Poster Presentation", "is_remote": true, "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9d14q4tv", "frozenauthors": [ { "first_name": "Ulrike", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Hahn", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Birkbeck, University of London", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Leon", "middle_name": "", "last_name": "Assaad", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München", "department": "" }, { "first_name": "Jason", "middle_name": "W.", "last_name": "Burton", "name_suffix": "", "institution": "Copenhagen Business School", "department": "" } ], "date_submitted": null, "date_accepted": null, "date_published": "2024-01-01T18:00:00Z", "render_galley": null, "galleys": [ { "label": "PDF", "type": "pdf", "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24222/galley/13818/download/" }, { "label": "PDF", "type": "pdf", "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/24222/galley/21433/download/" } ] }