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{
    "pk": 26135,
    "title": "A test of two models of probability judgment: quantum versus noisy probability",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "We test contrasting predictions of two recent models of proba-bility judgment: the quantum probability model (Busemeyeret al., 2011) and the probability theory plus noise model(Costello and Watts, 2014). Both models assume that peo-ple estimate probability using formal processes that follow orsubsume standard probability theory. The quantum probabil-ity model predicts people’s estimates should agree with oneset of probability theory identities, while the probability the-ory plus noise model predicts a specific pattern of violation ofthose identities. Experimental results show just the form of vi-olation predicted by the probability theory plus noise model.These results suggest that people’s probability judgments donot follow quantum probability: instead, they follow the rulesof standard probability theory, with the systematic biases seenin those judgments due to the effects of random noise.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [],
    "section": "Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1w83n9nr",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Fintan",
            "middle_name": "J.",
            "last_name": "Costello",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University College Dublin",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Paul",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Watts",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "National University of Ireland Maynooth,",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2016-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/26135/galley/15771/download/"
        }
    ]
}