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{
    "pk": 26954,
    "title": "Modeling the Ellsberg Paradox by Argument Strength",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "We present a formal measure of argument strength, whichcombines the ideas that conclusions of strong arguments are (i)highly probable and (ii) their uncertainty is relatively precise.Likewise, arguments are weak when their conclusion proba-bility is low or when it is highly imprecise. We show howthe proposed measure provides a new model of the Ellsbergparadox. Moreover, we further substantiate the psychologi-cal plausibility of our approach by an experiment (N = 60).The data show that the proposed measure predicts human in-ferences in the original Ellsberg task and in corresponding ar-gument strength tasks. Finally, we report qualitative data takenfrom structured interviews on folk psychological conceptionson what argument strength means.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "argument strength; coherence; Ellsberg paradox;probability logic"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Talks: Papers",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3vm8r4ft",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Niki",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Pfeifer",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Hanna",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Pankka",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Helsinki",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2017-01-01T10:00:00-08:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/26954/galley/16590/download/"
        }
    ]
}