Article Instance

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{
    "pk": 27904,
    "title": "High Chances and Close Margins: How Different Forecast Formats Shape Beliefs",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "While a large literature has studied how people make\nforecasts, less is known about how lay people process\nand interpret forecasts presented to them. We contrast\ntwo common ways of communicating an uncertain fore-\ncast, as either a chance (e.g., the probability of winning)\nor as an expected margin (e.g., the point spread). Across\nfive studies, we find a robust chance-margin discrepan-\ncy: people tend to treat a chance forecast as conveying\ngreater probability of the higher-likelihood outcome than\nthe statistically equivalent margin forecast",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Judgment; Decision Making; Linguistic Priming; Intertemporal Choice; Inference"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Publication-based-Talks",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/64f2v89r",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Oleg",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Urminsky",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "UChicago",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Lucy",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Shen",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Chinese University of Hong Kong",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Sondre",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Nero",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "UChicago",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2018-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/27904/galley/17542/download/"
        }
    ]
}