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{
    "pk": 28943,
    "title": "Modeling Judgment Errors in Naturalistic Numerical Estimation",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "We quantitatively modeled and compared two types of errorsin numerical estimation for naturalistic judgment targets: map-ping errors and knowledge errors. Mapping errors occur whenpeople make mistakes reporting their beliefs about a particularnumerical quantity (e.g. by inflating small numbers), whereasknowledge errors occur when people make mistakes usingtheir knowledge about the judgment target to form their be-liefs (e.g. by overweighting or underweighting cues). In twostudies, involving estimates of the calories of common fooditems and estimates of infant mortality rates in various coun-tries, we found that knowledge error models predicted partic-ipant estimates with very high out-of-sample accuracy rates,significantly outperforming the predictions of mapping errormodels. The knowledge error models were also able to iden-tify the objects and concepts most associated with incorrectestimates, shedding light on the psychological underpinningsof numerical judgment.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "judgment errors; numerical estimation; word em-beddings; word vectors; knowledge representation; cognitivemodel"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Papers with Poster Presentations",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7sn168xk",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Wanling",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Zou",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Pennsylvania",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Sudeep",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Bhatia",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Pennsylvania",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2019-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/28943/galley/18814/download/"
        }
    ]
}