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{
    "pk": 29725,
    "title": "“Take the Middle” – Averaging Prior and Evidenceas Effective Heuristic in Bayesian Reasoning",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "When humans revise their assumptions based on evidence, theyprocess information on the (un)certainties of the situation. Thisprocess can be modeled by a (mathematically optimal) Bayes-ian reasoning strategy. Humans typically deviate from thisnorm and apply heuristic strategies, often by only partially pro-cessing the available information (e.g., neglecting base rates).From a perspective of ecological rationality, such heuristicspossibly constitute viable cognitive strategies in certain situa-tions. We investigate the adequacy of a cognitively plausibleheuristic strategy, which amounts to approximately averagingthe probability information on prior hypotheses and evidence.We compare this strategy to optimal Bayesian reasoning and toinformation-neglecting strategies by exploring the situationalparameter space (number of hypotheses, prior and likelihoodvalues). Finally, we frame this in the context of teachers’ diag-nostic judgments on students’ potential misconceptions (pri-ors) based on students’ solutions (evidence) and interpret theresulting accuracy of decisions within the ecology of informalstudent assessment.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Bayesian reasoning; averaging-prior-and-evidencestrategy; diagnostic judgments; ecological rationality"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Poster Session 2",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1c0416jj",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Katharina",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Loibl",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Education Freiburg",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Timo",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Leuders",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Education Freiburg",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2020-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/29725/galley/19582/download/"
        }
    ]
}