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{
    "pk": 30780,
    "title": "Managing Uncertainty in Rule-based Reasoning",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "There are two major problems associated with propagation of uncertainty in the rule-based modeling of human reasoning. O n e concerns how the possibly uncertain evidence in a rule's antecedents affects the rule's conclusion. The other concerns the issue of combining evidence across rules having the same conclusion. Two experiments were conducted in which psychological data were compared with a variety of mathematical models for managing uncertainty. Results of an experiment on the fu-st problem suggested that the certainty of the antecedents in a production rule can be summarized by the maximum of disjunctively connected antecedents and the minimum of conjunctively connected antecedents {maximin summarizing), and that the m a x i m u m certainty of the rule's conclusion can be scaled down by multiplication with the results of that summary{multiplication scaling). A second experiment suggested that the second problem can be solved with Heckerman's modified certainty factor model which sums the certainties contributed by each of two rules and divides by 1 plus their product.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [],
    "section": "Paper Presentations",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0v09m19w",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Thomas",
            "middle_name": "R.",
            "last_name": "Shultz",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "McGill University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Philip",
            "middle_name": "David",
            "last_name": "Zelazo",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "McGill University",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Daniel",
            "middle_name": "J.",
            "last_name": "Engelberg",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "McGill University",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "1989-01-01T18:00:00Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "PDF",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/30780/galley/20629/download/"
        }
    ]
}