Article Instance

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{
    "pk": 38171,
    "title": "A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in African and West Asian countries in 2012–2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.",
    "language": "en",
    "license": null,
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "Malthusian trap"
        },
        {
            "word": "Cliodynamics"
        },
        {
            "word": "Political instability"
        },
        {
            "word": "Modernization"
        },
        {
            "word": "Secular cycles"
        },
        {
            "word": "Demography"
        },
        {
            "word": "African"
        },
        {
            "word": "International Relations and Affairs"
        },
        {
            "word": "Economics"
        },
        {
            "word": "History"
        },
        {
            "word": "American/U.S. Law/Legal Studies/Jurisprudence"
        },
        {
            "word": "City/Urban, Community and Regional Planning"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Article",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/79t737gt",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Andrey",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Korotayev",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Julia",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Zinkina",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Russian Academy of Sciences Presidium’s Program “Complex System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of the World Dynamics”",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Svetlana",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Kobzeva",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Russian Academy of Civil Service",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Justislav",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Bozhevolnov",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Moscow State University",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Daria",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Khaltourina",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Artemy",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Malkov",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Russian Academy of Sciences Presidium’s Program “Complex System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of the World Dynamics”",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Sergey",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Malkov",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences",
            "department": "None"
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": "2010-11-04T15:03:30-07:00",
    "date_accepted": "2010-11-04T15:03:30-07:00",
    "date_published": "2011-12-15T00:00:00-08:00",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cliodynamics/article/38171/galley/28735/download/"
        }
    ]
}