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{
    "pk": 46620,
    "title": "Forecasts and Drivers of Health Expenditure Growth in California",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "California’s state government, employers and households are concerned about the future affordability of healthcare. We use health expenditure data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Office of the Actuary to forecast California’s health expenditures from 2013 to 2022 and identify factors driving expenditure increases. Real health expenditures per capita (2013$) are forecasted to increase from $8,398 to $11,421 (or 36%), resulting in health expenditures increasing from 14.5% to 16.0% of California’s economy. Expenditure increases are mostly driven by gains in real income per capita (40-60%), followed by medical-specific inflation (23%), an aging population (14%), and insurance coverage gains (8%). The -4% to 16% residual is attributable to changes in the volume and mix of services and technology. Several innovations could potentially dampen these increases, such as shared-risk, value-based payment models, practice redesign initiatives, lower cost settings and healthcare professionals, many of which are found in accountable care organizations.",
    "language": "en",
    "license": null,
    "keywords": [
        {
            "word": "health expenditure forecasts"
        },
        {
            "word": "health expenditure growth"
        },
        {
            "word": "california"
        }
    ],
    "section": "Articles",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4w62b6mq",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Brent",
            "middle_name": "D.",
            "last_name": "Fulton",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of California, Berkeley",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Richard",
            "middle_name": "M.",
            "last_name": "Scheffler",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of California, Berkeley",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Beth",
            "middle_name": "K.",
            "last_name": "Keolanui",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of California, Berkeley",
            "department": "None"
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Stephen",
            "middle_name": "M.",
            "last_name": "Shortell",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of California, Berkeley",
            "department": "None"
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": "2015-02-04T04:10:02Z",
    "date_accepted": "2015-02-04T04:10:02Z",
    "date_published": "2015-03-23T23:00:33Z",
    "render_galley": null,
    "galleys": [
        {
            "label": "",
            "type": "pdf",
            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cjpp/article/46620/galley/35306/download/"
        }
    ]
}