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{
    "pk": 49181,
    "title": "Calculating probabilities from imagined possibilities: Limitations in 4-year-olds",
    "subtitle": null,
    "abstract": "Adults can calculate probabilities by running simulations and calculating proportions of each outcome. How does this ability develop? We developed a method that lets us bring computational modeling to bear on this question. A study of 40 adults and 31 4-year-olds indicates that unlike adults, many 4-year-olds use a single simulation to estimate probability distributions over simulated possibilities. We also implemented the 3-cups task, an established test of children's sensitivity to possibilities, in a novel format. We replicate existing 3-cups results. Moreover, children who our model categorized as running a single simulation on our novel task show a signature of running a single simulation in the 3-cups task. This signature is not observed in children who were categorized as running multiple simulations. This validates our model and adds to the evidence that about half of 4-year-olds don't evaluate multiple candidates for reality in parallel.",
    "language": "eng",
    "license": {
        "name": "",
        "short_name": "",
        "text": null,
        "url": ""
    },
    "keywords": [],
    "section": "Papers with Oral Presentation",
    "is_remote": true,
    "remote_url": "https://escholarship.org/uc/item/41j038vf",
    "frozenauthors": [
        {
            "first_name": "Brian",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Leahy",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Massachusetts Institute of Technology",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Vicente",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Vivanco",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "MIT",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Samuel",
            "middle_name": "J.",
            "last_name": "Cheyette",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "MIT",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Kevin",
            "middle_name": "A",
            "last_name": "Smith",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Massachusetts Institute of Technology",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Lucy",
            "middle_name": "J",
            "last_name": "White",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "University of Bath",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Roman",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Feiman",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Brown",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Laura",
            "middle_name": "",
            "last_name": "Schulz",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "Massachusetts Institute of Technology",
            "department": ""
        },
        {
            "first_name": "Joshua",
            "middle_name": "B.",
            "last_name": "Tenenbaum",
            "name_suffix": "",
            "institution": "MIT",
            "department": ""
        }
    ],
    "date_submitted": null,
    "date_accepted": null,
    "date_published": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z",
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            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/49181/galley/37142/download/"
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        {
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            "path": "https://journalpub.escholarship.org/cognitivesciencesociety/article/49181/galley/38687/download/"
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}