Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Applied Statistics
Was the Pre-Event SWIR Anomaly at Tsangbu Ri a Genuine Glacier-Collapse Precursor? A Calibrated Multi-Glacier Test of the 2026 Case
Published: 2026-09-19
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Geographic Information Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Hydrology, Planetary Geology, Planetary Glaciology, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Tectonics and Structure
On 26 August 2026 a compound bedrock-and-glacier failure on the northern flank of the Langtang Lirung–Tsangbu Ri (Kimshung) massif, Nepal–China border, generated a rock–ice avalanche and a catastrophic downstream flood along the Bhotekoshi–Trishuli river system. A pre-event Sentinel-2 shortwave-infrared (SWIR2–NIR–Red) composite (12 August 2026) shows a sharply bounded, strongly saturated [...]
Approaches and challenges in estimating economic loss from tsunami damage models
Published: 2026-09-17
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences
Tsunami damage assessment as a field has been steadily gaining momentum in the scientific community, and one of the most common ways in which damage has been quantified is by fragility functions. However, how tsunami damage models can be applied to practical disaster risk management is still relatively underexplored. An important aspect of disaster risk management is loss estimations. Loss [...]
ECOCIDE: Quantifying War-Time Environmental Damage: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis of the Kakhovka Dam Destruction
Published: 2026-09-05
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Biodiversity, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Human Geography, International and Area Studies, Other Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Abstract: International law organisations are actively looking into declaring "ecocide" -- mass environmental destruction -- as a prosecutable international crime and in September 2024, Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa submitted a proposed amendment to Rome Statute. No consistent, statistically sound method yet has been developed to document such a claim of harm, however, because prior environmental [...]
Deep-learning-based denoising and interpolation of small displacements caused by fault slip using InSAR and GNSS data: Application to the 2019 Mw 6.2 Hyuga-nada earthquake
Published: 2026-08-31
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences
In recent years, deep learning techniques have become important tools in Solid Earth science, including geodesy. Previous studies have applied deep learning techniques to synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) or Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, which are two major observation techniques of satellite geodesy, to mitigate noise or detect small signals. Because InSAR and [...]
Climate change has intensified exceptional El Niño events like the 2026/27 forecast
Published: 2026-08-29
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Extreme El Niño events disrupt weather across much of the globe, with adverse effects on agriculture, fisheries and economic output that persist for several years. Event attribution routinely quantifies the human influence on individual heatwaves, droughts and floods, but its application to the El Niño events that drive many of them has been much more limited. Here we investigate the 2026/27 El [...]
Integrated soil profile mapping reveals regional patterns of soil condition across Southern African agricultural lands
Published: 2026-08-28
Subjects: Agriculture, Applied Statistics, Environmental Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Soil Science, Spatial Science, Statistical Models
Soil information at regional scales remains limited in Africa despite its importance for sustainable agricultural management, food security and land degradation assessment. Existing digital soil mapping approaches commonly model soil properties as independent depth layers and apply depth harmonisation after prediction, limiting their capacity to characterise changes in soil condition. Here, we [...]
Data Test of a Hydro-Kinematic State Graph for Landslide Forecasting
Published: 2026-08-26
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Statistics and Probability
A graph model can make landslide-monitoring relationships explicit, but a graph is not automatically more informative than a well-regularized time-series model. This study tests that distinction on the publicly released Lamosano landslide record from northeastern Italy. The processed dataset contains 161 observations of 11-day horizontal InSAR differential displacement and rainfall from 10 April [...]
CRS Methodology to the Realmonte Salt mine, southwestern Sicily: an application for hydrogen storage potential site in Italy.
Published: 2026-08-22
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Geology, Mining Engineering, Multivariate Analysis, Risk Analysis, Sustainability
As Sicily expands its renewable energy portfolio, the need for large-scale energy storage becomes increasingly urgent to ensure supply-demand balance. Hydrogen storage in salt caverns represents a promising solution in this context. This study presents the first real-world application of the Common Risk Segment (CRS) methodology, originally developed for oil and gas exploration and recently [...]
PyRiverShift: A Gaussian Transect Decomposition Framework for Quantifying Sub-Pixel Lateral Channel Mobility
Published: 2026-08-16
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Water Resource Management
Along many rivers, lateral channel mobility is a key process, yet quantification from freely available multi-decadal 30 m Landsat imagery is constrained by low pixel resolution relative to channel width. We introduce PyRiverShift, a sensor-agnostic spectral decomposition framework. PyRiverShift fits a 1-D Gaussian to NDWI profiles along valley-perpendicular transects, recovering sub-pixel channel [...]
Reliability-Constrained Statistical Analysis of NASA CNEOS Fireball Events: Implications for Bolide Population Studies
Published: 2026-07-24
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Geophysics and Seismology, Other Planetary Sciences, Statistical Models
The NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Fireball Database is one of the most widely used resources for investigating global bolide populations. However, variations in event reliability, detection thresholds, and observational coverage introduce potential selection biases that may influence inferred population statistics. While the database has been extensively employed in studies of [...]
Wrack as a Roughness Element: Nonlinear Controls on Wind Reduction and Sediment Deposition in a Coastal Dune System
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Geomorphology
Coastal dunes are shaped by interactions among wind, sediment supply, and surface roughness elements. While vegetation is widely recognized as a driver of aeolian sediment dynamics, beach wrack remains understudied despite its frequent occurrence on sandy coastlines. This study investigated how wrack modifies airflow and influences sediment deposition. Paired 2D anemometers positioned upwind and [...]
A Low-Cost In-Silico Geological Assessment Workflow for Two IOCG-Style Targets with Mixed Iron-Oxide Surface Expression in Chile, with Comparative Reference to a Copper Porphyry Gossan-Blanket System
Published: 2026-06-07
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences
This study presents a low-cost, in-silico geological assessment workflow for early-stage mineral exploration under minimal-data conditions, with particular relevance for artisanal mining and small-scale exploration. Contrasting Chilean case settings are used to examine differences in oxidized surface expression. The analysis focuses on two targets in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera cobalt–iron [...]
Deciphering the morphology of turbiditic lobe bodies according to hierarchy and system size
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Statistics and Probability
Turbiditic lobe bodies (LBs) are the ultimate deposits of source-to-sink systems. Their geometry and architecture vary with depositional environment (marine vs. lacustrine), hierarchy (lobe elements, lobes, lobe complexes), system size (large vs. small) and topographic confinement. Constraining these variations is useful for characterizing the dispersion of sediments, carbon, nutrients, and [...]
Trapped Lee-Wave Resonance Determines Antarctic Megadune Wavelength
Published: 2026-05-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Categorical Data Analysis, Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys, Earth Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Mineral Physics, Other Earth Sciences, Paleontology, Physics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Glaciology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Mineral Physics, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy
Snow megadunes cover 5×105 km2 of the East Antarctic plateau, biasing surface mass balance estimates and overprinting ice-core signals—yet their 2–5 km wavelength has lacked a quantitative selection mechanism for two decades. We first falsify the standard formula λ∗ = 2πU0/N through a calibration-free spatial test: eight REMA 2 m tiles across two independent locations at 81.5–82.0°S show no [...]
Soil-informed multivariate decision support to assess urban ecosystem service potential
Published: 2026-04-17
Subjects: Agriculture, Applied Mathematics, Applied Statistics, Biodiversity, Dynamical Systems, Multivariate Analysis, Natural Resources and Conservation, Remote Sensing, Soil Science, Spatial Science, Sustainability, Theory and Algorithms
Metropolitan expansion across Africa requires robust soil information to support ecosystem services and urban resilience. However, digital soil mapping often prioritises predictive accuracy over identifying where information is reliable for decision making. This study evaluated numerical and South African Soil Taxonomy within a decision framework to assess where ecosystem service inferences can [...]