There are 3384 Preprints listed.

Climate change impacts on surface heat fluxes in a deep monomictic lake

Ana I. Ayala, Jorrit P. Mesman, Ian D. Jones, et al.

Published: 2022-12-08
Subjects: Life Sciences

Turbulent and radiative energy exchanges between lakes and the atmosphere play an important role in determining the process of lake-mixing and stratification, including how lakes respond to climate and to climate change. Here we use a one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model to assess seasonal impacts of climate change on individual surface heat flux components in Lough Feeagh, Ireland, a deep, [...]

Global climate change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology

B. B. Cael, Kelsey Bisson, Emmanuel Boss, et al.

Published: 2022-12-07
Subjects: Oceanography

Climate change-driven trends in phytoplankton populations, as viewed by Earth-observing satellites, were thought to be masked by strong natural variability, so that >30 years of continuous data was needed to detect a climate trend. Here we show that climate change trends emerge more rapidly in ocean color (remote sensing reflectance, Rrs), as Rrs is multivariate and some wavebands have low [...]

Basin-scale hydrodynamics and physical connectivity in a Great Patagonian Lake

Javiera Abarca, Hugo Nicolás Ulloa, Yarko Niño

Published: 2022-12-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Patagonian lakes are one of the most unexplored aquatic environments on Earth, and little is known about their thermo-hydrodynamics and current trophic state. Meanwhile, increasing urbanization and industrialization in their catchments compromise their health. Here, we investigate Lake Llanquihue, one of the Earth's great freshwater bodies in Northern Patagonia, Chile. Still considered a pristine [...]

Quantification of the impact of acidified brine on fracture-matrix transport in a naturally fractured shale using in situ imaging and modeling

Christopher Zahasky, Manju Pharkavi Murugesu, Takeshi Kurotori, et al.

Published: 2022-12-07
Subjects: Geotechnical Engineering, Hydrology

Understanding flow, transport, chemical reactions, and hydro-mechanical processes in fractured geologic materials is key for optimizing a range of subsurface processes including carbon dioxide and hydrogen storage, unconventional energy resource extraction, and geothermal energy recovery. Flow and transport processes in naturally fractured shale rocks have been challenging to characterize due to [...]

Modeling Earthquake-induced Landslide initiation using the Fibre Bundle Model

Yuanjing Chen, Bastian Van den Bout, Luigi Lombardo, et al.

Published: 2022-12-05
Subjects: Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology

Co-seismic landslides are triggered by strong ground shaking in mountainous areas, resulting in threats to human activity and infrastructure. Methods for physically-based modelling of co-seismic landslide triggering play an important role in disaster prevention and mitigation. Current approaches, however, focus on direct and full failure of sloping rocks and soils, and do not cover the dynamics [...]

Global methane pledge versus lower CO2 emissions

B. B. Cael, Philip Goodwin

Published: 2022-12-05
Subjects: Climate

Methane (CH$_4$) is a potent greenhouse gas whose contribution to anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate system is second only to carbon dioxide (CO$_2$). CH$_4$ emission reduction has become central to global climate mitigation policy, resulting most notably in the Global Methane Pledge (GMP), pledging a 30\% reduction of CH$_4$ emissions by 2030. Methane is, however, much shorter-lived [...]

A breakthrough in fast flood simulation

Bastian Van den Bout, Victor Jetten, Cees J. van Westen, et al.

Published: 2022-12-05
Subjects: Fluid Dynamics, Hydrology

The current status of technological advancement does not allow to generate complete flood simulations in real-time for large geographic areas. This hinders warning-systems, interactive planning tools and detailed forecasts and as a consequence the population cannot be quickly or reliably informed of where large masses of water will flow. Our novel method computes flood hazard maps over three [...]

Subsurface fracturing of sedimentary stones caused by bullet impacts

Oliver Campbell, Tom Blenkinsop, Lisa Mol, et al.

Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences

The immovable nature of built heritage means that it is particularly vulnerable during times of armed conflict. Although impacts from small arms and shrapnel leave relatively inconspicuous impact scars, they may elevate the risk of future stone deterioration. This study investigates the subsurface damage caused by bullet impacts, which is not apparent from surface inspection, in order to better [...]

Prescribed burns as a tool to mitigate future wildfire smoke exposure: Lessons for states and rural environmental justice communities

Makoto Michael Kelp, Matthew Carroll, Tianjia Liu, et al.

Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Smoke from wildfires presents one of the greatest threats to air quality, public health, and ecosystems in the United States, especially in the West. Here we quantify the efficacy of prescribed burning as an intervention for mitigating smoke exposure downwind of wildfires across the West during the 2018 and 2020 fire seasons. Using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we [...]

Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models

Sebastian Gnann, Robert Reinecke, Lina Stein, et al.

Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Global water models are widely used for policy-making and in scientific studies, but substantial inter-model differences highlight the need for additional evaluation. Here we evaluate global water models by assessing so-called functional relationships between system forcing and response variables. The more widely used comparisons between observed and simulated fluxes provide insight into model [...]

A Web-based Analytical Urban Flood Damage and Loss Estimation Framework

Yazeed Alabbad, Enes Yildirim, Ibrahim Demir

Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis, Systems and Communications

Information and communication technology serves a crucial role in communicating flood risk and consequences to a broad range of stakeholders and facilitating mitigation decisions. While studies extensively utilize flood inundation maps for communicating flood risks, there is a need to integrate a broad spectrum of physical vulnerability parameters into risk estimates at various spatial scales. [...]

An interconnected palaeo-subglacial lake system in the central Barents Sea

Mariana Esteves, Denise Christina Rüther, Monica C.W. Winsborrow, et al.

Published: 2022-12-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Sedimentology

Drainage of meltwater beneath an ice sheet influences ice-flow dynamics. To better predict ice sheet behaviour, it is crucial to understand subglacial hydrological processes. Subglacial lakes are important components of the subglacial hydrological system, with many observed and predicted at the beds of contemporary and palaeo-ice sheets. The technical and logistical challenges of studying [...]

Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification of Magma Interaction Times using Statistical Emulation

Luca Insolia, Stéphane Guerrier, Chiara Paola Montagna, et al.

Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology

Evolution of volcanic plumbing systems towards eruptions of different styles and sizes largely depends on processes at crustal depths that are outside our observational capabilities. These processes can be modeled and the outputs of the simulations can be compared with the chemistry of the erupted products, geophysical and geodetic data to retrieve information on the architecture of the plumbing [...]

Benchmarking a two-way coupled coastal wave-current hydrodynamics model

Anastasia K. Fragkou, Christopher Old, Vengatesan Venugopal, et al.

Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Engineering

Wave-current interaction phenomena are often represented through coupled model frameworks in ocean modelling. However, the benchmarking of these models is scarce, revealing a substantial research challenge. We seek to address this through a selection of benchmark cases for coupled wave-current interaction modelling frameworks. This comprises a series of analytical and experimental test cases [...]

Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth

Christopher Callahan, Justin Mankin

Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes extreme weather globally, causing myriad socioeconomic impacts. But whether economies recover from ENSO events and how changes to ENSO from anthropogenic forcing will affect the global economy are unknown. Here we show that El Niño persistently reduces country-level economic growth, attributing $4.9T and $7.4T in global income losses to the 1982-83 and [...]


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