Preprints
There are 6669 Preprints listed.
Frictional weakening in the highly mobile 2025 Blatten (Switzerland) rock–ice avalanche
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Dynamics and Dynamical Systems, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Geotechnical Engineering, Multivariate Analysis, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Risk Analysis
Cascading slope failures in alpine environments are intensifying as glaciers retreat and slope stability adjusts to a warming climate. Yet, the mechanisms governing such large, rapidly evolving events remain poorly understood. The 28 May 2025 rock–ice avalanche from Birch Glacier, Switzerland ($\approx9.3\times10^{6}~\mathrm{m^3}$), which devastated part of the village of Blatten, provides a [...]
Are high-resolution urban datasets necessary for accurate heat exposure modelling in cities?
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Accurately capturing the spatial variability of urban heat exposure is important for planning heat-resilient cities. While regional climate models have historically simplified urban characteristics, high-resolution urban morphological datasets now present an opportunity to produce spatially accurate heat maps. In this vein, this study evaluates four morphological datasets for Sydney, Australia in [...]
Do Less Predictable Tropical Cyclones Induce Larger Damages?
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Statistical Models
Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause substantial disaster losses worldwide. Forecast skill for TC track and intensity has been improved by enhanced observations, high-resolution numerical models, advanced data assimilation methods, and applications of machine-learning methods. Yet these improvements have not consistently translated into reduced losses, in part because disaster outcomes depend on many [...]
Kelvin-Helmholtz Stability Analysis as a Function of Dipole Tilt and Solar Wind Property
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Emerging Shift in the Indian Summer Monsoon Sensitivity to Equatorial Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: Insights from High-Resolution AGCM SST Patch Experiments
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall exhibits strong sensitivity to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) across four Indo-Pacific nodal regions: The Western and Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO and EEIO), the Western Pacific (WPAC), and the Niño3.4 region. Historically, positive ISM rainfall anomalies are associated with warming in WEIO and WPAC, while warming in EEIO and Niño3.4 [...]
From "Ion-Adsorption" to "Ion-Adsorbed" Rare Earths: Terminological Drift, AI Paraphrasing, and the Erosion of Geochemical Precision
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry
The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) tools for writing and paraphrasing is transforming scientific communication. While such tools can improve linguistic fluency, their misuse, particularly when employed to mechanically rephrase text, may introduce subtle but consequential distortions in scientific terminology. In disciplines such as geochemistry, where terminology is closely tied [...]
Experimental Investigation of Movement and Deposition of Woody-Debris Suspensions in Inclined Channel Tests
Published: 2026-03-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering
Debris flows, which mobilize large volumes of water, sediment, and woody debris, pose significant risks to human communities and infrastructure. In wildfire-affected forested areas, the accumulation of woody debris in drainage channels is exacerbated, thereby increasing the potential for more hazardous debris flows. To examine the influence of woody debris on debris flow dynamics, an inclined [...]
Beyond efficiency: Sufficiency unlocks deep decarbonization of U.S. residential sector
Published: 2026-03-16
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Residential decarbonization strategies in the United States have focused predominantly on energy efficiency measures such as heat pump adoption and building envelope upgrades, while sufficiency—avoiding unnecessary energy demand while ensuring well-being—remains largely unrepresented in quantitative national scenarios. Here, we assess the effects of structural sufficiency (i.e., moderating [...]
Probabilistic modelling of pharmaceutical pollution risk from sewage treatment work discharges using a Bayesian Network: application to a Scottish river catchment
Published: 2026-03-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Pharmacology, Toxicology and Environmental Health, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management
Pharmaceuticals are increasingly recognised as a class of emerging contaminants of concern in rivers. Their continuous release from human use and variable removal in sewage treatment works (STWs) can produce ecologically relevant concentrations and contribute to antimicrobial resistance. We developed a probabilistic catchment-scale model based on a Bayesian Network (BN) to quantify pharmaceutical [...]
Melt sustains pre-monsoon flow while groundwater drives the monsoon in the Nepal Himalayas
Published: 2026-03-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Himalayan water-security assessments often focus on glacier retreat, yet groundwater may supply much of river flow. We combine seismic observations from the Hi-CLIMB transect across Nepal (2002–2004) with gauged discharge, satellite precipitation, and glacier-cover inventories to resolve when streamflow is sustained by melt versus groundwater. Relative seismic velocity changes track hillslope [...]
THE ROLE OF IRON CENTERS IN COAL OXIDATION: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATION OF SURFACE ACTIVE SITE DENSITY
Published: 2026-03-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Iron in coals occurs in various forms (pyrite, ultradispersed particles, ions in the carbon matrix) and plays a key role in oxidation processes, spontaneous combustion, liquefaction, and gasification. Although extensive experimental data have accumulated over recent decades, a systematic generalization linking quantitative estimates of the surface density of catalytically active Fe centers to [...]
Volcanic CO2 degassing and microbial carbon fixation in a caldera offshore
Published: 2026-03-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Volcanology
Calderas are subsided volcanic terrains formed by the destructive power of some of the largest volcanic eruptions on Earth. Many such depressions globally are today submerged by crater lakes or seawater, rendering them less accessible to scientific scrutiny, and hence more complicated to monitor during unrest. One of such systems is the restless, partly submerged Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc) near [...]
The 1908 Tunguska event and some mini-Tunguskas
Published: 2026-03-14
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This paper is a continuation of a series of works, devoted to various aspects of the 1908 Tunguska event. This paper is devoted to several events which can be called as mini-Tunguskas. Their manifestations are in some ways similar to the 1908 Tunguska event, only on a much smaller scale. Often initially such events were interpreted as meteoroidal bolides or even meteorite falls. However, the [...]
Territorially-Specialized Machine Learning Models for Wildfire Risk Prediction Across Argentina Using Satellite Data and H3 Hexagonal Grids
Published: 2026-03-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Wildfire risk prediction in large, ecologically diverse countries requires models that account for regional variation in fire drivers. We present GeoAlertAR-ML, a wildfire risk prediction system for Argentina that uses an ensemble of regionally specialized Random Forest classifiers operating over a national hexagonal grid of 13,231 H3 cells. Unlike global fire danger indices or single-model [...]
Inequality’s contribution to global catastrophic risk
Published: 2026-03-13
Subjects: Agriculture, Environmental Sciences, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Inequality is rising and so is global catastrophic risk. These two problems are not independent from each other. Inequality has historically been a major driver of social instability, and is increasing the risk of global catastrophes today. We demonstrate this by drawing on the rich literature around societal collapse and global catastrophe from both past and modern societies, highlighting the [...]