Preprints

There are 3014 Preprints listed.

Separation of climate models and observations based on daily output using machine learning

Lukas Brunner, Sebastian Sippel

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Climate

Climate models are primary tools to investigate processes in the climate system, to project future changes, and to inform decision makers. The latest generation of models provides simulations of unprecedented complexity and resolution, resulting in increasingly realistic representations of the real climate system. At the same time, there is growing awareness that not all models produce equally [...]

Methane Emissions from the Fossil Fuel Industries of the Russian Federation

Robert L Kleinberg

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Oil, Gas, and Energy

Methane emissions are a major driver of human-induced climate change. Moreover, reduction of the rate of methane emissions is the fastest and least disruptive way to moderate global temperature rise over the next several decades. The production of fossil fuels - principally coal, oil, and natural gas – is an important source of anthropogenic methane. As one of the world’s most important [...]

Probabilistic Assessment of Antarctic Thermomechanical Structure: Impacts on Ice Sheet Stability

James Alexander Nicholas Hazzard, Fred D. Richards, Saskia Goes, et al.

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology

Uncertainty in present-day glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) rates represent at least 44% of the total gravity-based ice mass balance signal over Antarctica. Meanwhile, physical couplings between solid Earth, sea level and ice dynamics enhance the dependency of the spatiotemporally varying GIA signal on three-dimensional variations in mantle rheology. Improved knowledge of thermomechanical [...]

Centering Equity in the Nation's Weather, Water and Climate Services

Aradhna Tripati, Marshall Shepherd, Vernon Morris, et al.

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences

Water, weather, and climate affect everyone. However, their impacts on various communities can be very different based on who has access to essential services and environmental knowledge. At the same time, structural discrimination, including racism and other forms of privileging and exclusion, affects people's lives and health, with ripples across all sectors of society. In the United States, [...]

Complex motion of Greenland Ice Sheet outlet glaciers with basal temperate ice

Robert Law, Poul Christoffersen, Emma MacKie, et al.

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Glaciology

Uncertainty associated with ice motion plagues sea-level rise predictions. Much of this uncertainty arises from imperfect representations of physical processes including basal slip and internal ice deformation, with ice-sheet models largely incapable of reproducing borehole-based observations. To investigate further, we model isolated 3D domains from fast-moving (Sermeq Kujalleq or Store Glacier) [...]

Experimental evaluation of the effects of bigmouth buffalo (Ictiobus cyprinellus) density on shallow lake ecosystems

Grace Marie Wilkinson, Tyler Butts, Elena Sandry, et al.

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology

Bigmouth buffalo (Ictiobus cyprinellus) is a large-bodied planktivore inhabiting shallow waterways in North America and subjected to unregulated harvest throughout much of their native range. Despite high harvest pressure on some populations, we know little about the ecosystem-level effects of lowering bigmouth buffalo densities. To evaluate the effect of bigmouth buffalo density on lower trophic [...]

Time-Dependent Decrease in Fault Strength in the 2011--2016 North Kanto Earthquake Sequence

Sam Wimpenny, Natalie Forrest, Alex Copley

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Tectonics and Structure

Two near-identical Mw 5.8 earthquakes in 2011 and 2016 ruptured the Mochiyama Fault in North Kanto, Japan. The unusually short repeat time between the Mochiyama earthquakes provides a rare opportunity estimate the evolution of stress on a fault through an earthquake cycle, as the stress drop in the first earthquake provides a reference from which we can infer variations through time in the [...]

Caravan - A global community dataset for large-sample hydrology

Frederik Kratzert, Grey Nearing, Nans Addor, et al.

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Hydrology relies on data, and high quality datasets are essential to support advances in hydrological process understanding and modelling. The past decade has seen the release of several large-sample hydrology (LSH) datasets. These datasets make available an easy-to-use combination of high-quality hydroclimatic time series (atmospheric and river flow data) plus biogeophysical attributes (e.g. [...]

A Generalized Natural Hazard Risk Modelling Framework for Infrastructure Failure Cascades

Evelyn Mühlhofer, Elco E. Koks, Chahan M. Kropf, et al.

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis

Critical infrastructures are more exposed than ever to natural hazards in a chaning climate. To understand and manage risk, failure cascades across large, real-world infrastructure networks, caused by real-world hazards, and their impact on people, must be captured. Bridging established methods in both infrastructure and risk modelling communities, we develop an open-source modelling framework [...]

Defining renewable groundwater use to improve groundwater management

Mark Olaf Cuthbert, Tom Gleeson, Grant Ferguson, et al.

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Groundwater systems are commonly but variously defined as renewable or non-renewable based on natural fluxes of recharge or on estimates of aquifer storage and groundwater residence time. However, the principle of capture challenges simple definitions: groundwater pumping can alter the rates of groundwater recharge and/or discharge over a characteristic groundwater response time related to the [...]

Separating balanced and unbalanced flow at the surface of the Agulhas region using Lagrangian filtering

C Spencer Jones, Qiyu Xiao, Ryan Abernathey, et al.

Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Oceanography

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite will measure altimetry on scales down to about 15km: at these scales, the sea-surface-height signature of inertia-gravity waves, including barotropic tides and internal tides, will be visible. However, inertia-gravity waves have little impact on tracer transport. This paper explores how to remove the portion of the surface velocity and sea [...]

A Practical Guide to Virtual Outcrop Photogrammetry in Earth Science

Matthew S Allison, Jonathan R Hall, Stephen M Jones

Published: 2022-05-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

In 2021, a photogrammetric model of a 7 km coastal cliff section of the Tjörnes Peninsula, NE Iceland was constructed to provide a “virtual geological outcrop” at a spatial resolution of approximately 5 cm or less. Field expedition planning and post-expedition processing were somewhat hampered by a lack of freely accessible guiding resources. This document presents a first-hand case study of [...]

Sorption vs Adsorption: the words they are a-changin', not the phenomena

Olivier Pourret, Jean-Claude Bollinger, Andrew Hursthouse, et al.

Published: 2022-05-17
Subjects: Chemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences

In this discussion, we highlight that the terms sorption and adsorption are often confused and misused in many articles. Even if one thought their formal definition is well known, this does not appear to be the case. We recommend encouragement to adopt the word adsorption only when fully supported by appropriate data and using the sorption terminology when it is more speculative, typically in [...]

A very unconventional hydrocarbon play: the Mesoproterozoic Velkerri Formation of Northern Australia

Grant Cox, Alan S. Collins, Amber J.M. Jarrett, et al.

Published: 2022-05-16
Subjects: Geochemistry, Geology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure

The ca. 1.5–1.3 Ga Roper Group of the greater McArthur Basin is a component of one of the most extensive Precambrian hydrocarbon-bearing basins preserved in the geological record, recently assessed as containing 429 million barrels of oil and eight trillion cubic feet of gas (in place). It was deposited in an intra-cratonic sea, referred to here as the McArthur-Yanliao Gulf. The Velkerri [...]

The quest for the missing plastics: Large uncertainties in river plastic export into the sea

Caspar Roebroek, Tim van Emmerik, Daniel González-Fernández, et al.

Published: 2022-05-16
Subjects: Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Studies, Hydrology

Plastic pollution in the natural environment is causing increasing concern at both the local and global scale. Understanding the dispersion of plastic through the environment is of key importance for the effective implementation of preventive measures and cleanup strategies. Over the past few years, various models have been developed to estimate the transport of plastics in rivers, using limited [...]

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