Preprints
There are 6554 Preprints listed.
EQ-INSAR: A Python Package for Generating Synthetic Earthquake InSAR Deformation Data
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Remote Sensing
EQ-INSAR is an open-source Python package for generating synthetic Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) surface deformation data from earthquake sources. The package implements the Davis (1986) point source model to compute three component ground displacement from double-couple earthquake mechanisms. Then it projects the displacement onto satellite line-of-sight (LOS) geometries to [...]
Rethinking grounding-zone basal drag for improved projections of Antarctic ice loss
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Geology, Geomorphology, Glaciology
Ice-stream grounding zones are critical parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and we must be able to model how they retreat with confidence. This is because for most of Antarctica, the grounding-zone location determines the flux of ice to the ocean. As such, future grounding-zone locations (as the ice-sheet edge retreats inland) dictate the pattern and rate of ice loss and the associated sea-level [...]
Seismic Efficiency during Volcanic Unrest: Insights from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Eruption
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Volcanology
Identifying patterns in precursory signals may aid forecasting over month to year timescales. Here we examine the relationship between seismicity and ground deformation during unrest prior to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. We find that the ratio between seismic moment and horizontal GPS ground displacement is constant within two distinct phases, but with a step increase from one to the [...]
Data-driven control reveals distributed flood adaptation priorities across large river networks under climate change
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Dynamical Systems, Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Distributed flood adaptation requires knowing where in a river network attenuation effort should concentrate and how much each reach requires, but the spatial coupling, scenario dependence, and high dimensionality of real drainage networks have kept these requirements largely unresolved. We combine data-driven dynamics learning, reduced-order modeling, and optimal control theory into a diagnostic [...]
Sub-pixel mapping of disturbance and tree mortality dynamics from Sentinel-2 time series around the globe
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Biogeochemistry, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Elevated forest disturbances and excess tree mortality are increasingly reported worldwide. Yet existing assessments are either based on patchy terrestrial observations or on large-scale satellite products, which are limited in resolution to pixel-level, binary tree loss detection. This leaves a blind spot on fine-scale disturbances where only a few trees are declining in an otherwise intact [...]
Emergent Spatio-Semantic Structure in Large Language Model Embedding Spaces
Published: 2026-02-23
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Geographic Information Sciences
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in geospatial applications typically as generators of geographic text or as natural language interfaces to spatial data. Here, we explore whether LLM embedding spaces can instead function as geospatial representations that can be exploited directly. Using embeddings extracted from Airbnb property descriptions in London, we show that [...]
Household water storage compromises drinking water safety in a “safely managed” system
Published: 2026-02-23
Subjects: Public Health
While nearly three-quarters of the globe use safely managed drinking water services, water quality can deteriorate between the point of service provision and point of consumption due to intermittent supply and the need to store water at the household level. To test if water storage contributes to waterborne pathogen hazards, we estimated prevalence and concentration of enteric pathogens in piped [...]
Mapping Temperature Deviation and Elderly Vulnerability using Open Source Technology: A One-Week Analysis of Manhattan, New York City
Published: 2026-02-23
Subjects: Geographic Information Sciences, Nature and Society Relations, Remote Sensing
This paper outlines a research method for collecting, analyzing, and visualizing real-time temperature data for cities using open data and open source technology. The system collects temperature data for each census tract in Manhattan three times daily via the OpenWeather API and stores observations in a PostgreSQL/PostGIS database. A one-week pilot study (November 15-22, 2025) analyzed 8,990 [...]
A bias-corrected & downscaled massive ensemble to diagnose uncertainty in climate impact projections
Published: 2026-02-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Projections of climate change and climate impacts requires bias-corrected, downscaled output from ensembles of earth system models (ESMs). Potential impacts are uncertain due to modeling differences between ESMs, internal variability stemming from the chaos of the earth system, and differences in the historical reference datasets used to bias-corrected and downscale ESM output. Here, we introduce [...]
Backstress governs transient postseismic creep in the continental lithospheric mantle
Published: 2026-02-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the physical processes that control how the continental lithospheric mantle responds to sudden stress changes during the earthquake cycle is essential for interpreting postseismic deformation and constraining the rheological behaviour of the mantle. Laboratory studies have revealed that long-range elastic interactions among dislocations generate backstresses that strongly influence [...]
Machine Learning and Explainable AI for Agricultural Drought Prediction: A Comparative Analysis of Gradient Boosting Methods Using Multi-Source Earth Observation Data
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Agriculture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Life Sciences
Drought monitoring and prediction remain critical challenges in climate science and agricultural management, particularly under accelerating climate change. This study presents a comprehensive machine learning framework for drought susceptibility mapping in Iowa, USA, using multi-source Earth observation data and explainable artificial intelligence. We systematically evaluated eleven supervised [...]
Projected spatial reorganization of Köppen–Geiger climate zones under climate change and consequences for population and economic exposure
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Sustainability
Climate change is expected to reorganize macro-climatic regimes at the planetary scale, with implications that extend beyond physical climate variables to the spatial configuration of human systems. While projected shifts in temperature and precipitation are well documented, their translation into categorical climate-regime transitions and associated socio-economic exposure remains insufficiently [...]
Quantifying the Causal Strength of Compound Drought–Heatwaves: Implications for Fire Events and Cropland Productivity
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events represent one of the most disruptive forms of climate extremes, as the simultaneous occurrence of dry and hot conditions signifies their impacts far beyond those of individual events. Yet, despite their increasing significance, the causal influence of CDHW frequency and severity on fire activity and crop yield variability remains poorly quantified, [...]
The Role of Flexure Margins in Controlling Open Fracture Distribution: Insights from Analogue Modeling of Orthogonal Rift and Pull-Apart Systems
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Hydrocarbon exploration in Basement Fracture Reservoirs faces significant challenges in predicting fracture connectivity below seismic resolution. This study utilizes analogue sandbox modeling to compare the spatial distribution of open fractures in orthogonal normal fault systems and pull-apart basins. Methodological innovation is implemented through the use of a 1 mm thick gypsum layer atop 8 [...]
Cross-referencing astronaut-observed lunar impact flashes with seismic data - lessons from Apollo for Artemis
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
During their orbits of the Moon in 1972, Apollo astronauts reported three impact flashes on the lunar surface, associated with meteoroids striking the surface and vaporizing. We examined data from the Apollo seismic network to investigate whether these flashes produced detectable moonquakes whose locations and timing could be independently validated. No candidate matches were found, though stream [...]