Preprints
There are 6902 Preprints listed.
Increasing lifetime exposure to extreme fire weather under climate change in Europe
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Climate change increases fire weather globally. Hot, dry and windy conditions raise the likelihood of fires igniting and spreading and make suppression more challenging. With further warming, fire weather is projected to intensify across Europe, yet implications for today’s young generations remain unclear. Here, we analyse lifetime exposure to extreme fire weather across Europe using an ensemble [...]
Reduced geomagnetic shielding increased UV-B radiation at Earth’s surface during the Laschamps Event
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Atmospheric Sciences, Biochemistry, Biogeochemistry, Biology, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Life Sciences, Paleobiology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Exposure to excess UV-B radiation can harm organisms through DNA damage and oxidative stress, and has likely been a key ecological and evolutionary driver throughout Earth’s history. Here, we show UV-B at Earth’s surface was significantly increased during the Laschamps Event, the last major geomagnetic excursion ca. 41ka BP. During the Laschamps, we find significant and prolonged (lasting [...]
Direct quantification of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence using compact solar-blind optical radiometers
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Optics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a non-invasive, quantitative measure of plant photosynthetic activity, linking leaf-level physiology to canopy and ecosystem behavior and the global carbon cycle. Current SIF measurements rely on hyperspectral retrievals of the weak fluorescence signal from small changes in Fraunhofer lines or atmospheric absorption features [...]
Building a climate resilient health system: Lessons from Health National Adaptation Planning (H-NAP) in Uganda
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Public Health
Climate change is increasingly affecting both health and the systems required to deliver care, particularly in low-resource settings. In response, Uganda developed its Health National Adaptation Plan (H-NAP) 2025–2030 to guide climate change adaptation in the health sector. However, limited analytical attention has been paid to how low-resource countries are developing and institutionalising [...]
Climate Change Driven Disruptions in Health Service Uptake and Gender Role Inequities in SubSaharan Africa: A Scoping Review
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Background SubSaharan Africa (SSA) faces deeply intersecting crises in which high climate vulnerability interacts with entrenched gender role inequities, severely compromising population health and resilience. Climatedriven shocks including droughts and floodsdisrupt health systems and disproportionately affect women and girls due to preexisting socioeconomic and cultural [...]
Towards Prospective Disaster Risk Management: Mapping Multi-hazard Urban Risk Dynamics Driven by Evolving Exposure and Vulnerability via Earth Observation
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Categorical Data Analysis, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Geographic Information Sciences, Human Geography, Other Computer Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Risk Analysis, Spatial Science, Structural Engineering
As local governments increasingly adopt geospatial Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) to inform prospective public policy, the reliability of existing static risk intelligence is challenged by the continuous evolution of building exposure, population distribution, and physical vulnerability. Recent multi-temporal datasets of the built environment, derived from Earth Observation and [...]
Intensifying Seismicity beneath Mount Teide: Assessing the Probability of an Imminent Eruption on Tenerife
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Volcanology
Recent seismic swarms in the western sector of the Las Cañadas Caldera (Tenerife, Canary Islands) have raised concerns regarding the potential for renewed eruptive activity at Teide. Although the earthquakes were of small magnitude and occurred at depths of around 6-12 km, their detection and media coverage generated public concern on an island visited by millions of tourists each year. Teide [...]
Living on the Edge: Unequal Rise of Global Population Exposure on Steep Terrain
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Sustainability
The global population living on steep terrain is rising, so is their landslide risk. However, hotspots and driving mechanisms of increasing exposure remain poorly understood. We assess changes in global gridded population and settlement characteristics on steep terrain (≥ 10◦ hillslope inclination) aggregated over topographic catchments (mean area ∼10,000 km2) for 1975–2025. We find that about [...]
Integrated Triassic sediment routing along eastern Gondwana (Australia)
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Triassic continental sedimentary basins along the eastern margin of Gondwana record drainage reorganisation and sediment routing, but provenance links among adjacent basins remain uncertain. This study integrates detrital zircon U–Pb data and sandstone petrography from the Triassic Rewan Group and Clematis Group of the northern Bowen Basin with published palaeocurrent constraints and compares [...]
COMPARATIVE STUDY OF MONSOON AND IOD EFFECTS ON RAINFALL VARIABILITY IN NORTH AND SOUTH SUMATRA
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Sumatra Island exhibits distinct rainfall characteristics between its northern and southern regions due to its equatorial position. Generally, Northern Sumatra displays a bimodal rainfall pattern driven by the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), whereas Southern Sumatra follows a monomodal pattern influenced by the Asian-Australian Monsoon system. This study aims to evaluate [...]
Closing the Duration Gap in RVT: The Energetic Duration
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering
Duration is a fundamental descriptor of earthquake ground motion, yet it remains ill-defined across engineering seismology, with numerous threshold-based measures adopted for specific applications. This ambiguity has allowed duration to function as a calibration parameter in analyses such as random vibration theory (RVT), where it is often adjusted to match observed response spectra. This paper [...]
Acceleration and Spatial Reorganization of Bank Erosion under Prolonged Sediment Starvation: Multi-decadal Evidence from the Vam Nao Channel
Published: 2026-04-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The reduction in sediment supply in major deltas worldwide is altering the morphological dynamics of river delta systems. However, the way in which this process leads to the spatial reorganization of erosion has not yet been fully quantified. This study analyzes shoreline variations in the Vam Nao channel, Mekong Delta, over the period 1988–2025 in order to clarify the morphological changes of [...]
Evaluating Sampling Bias and Model Uncertainty in Species Distribution Models of Marine Plankton Using Virtual Ecosystem Data
Published: 2026-04-29
Subjects: Life Sciences
Understanding the biodiversity and biogeography of plankton in the ocean is essential for predicting responses to environmental changes and informing ocean conservation and management strategies. Species distribution models (SDMs) are a pivotal tool in this regard. This study used data from a global marine ecosystem model as a testbed to assess the reliability of various SDMs, including [...]
Estimating Ice Shelf Thickness in Grounding Zones of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf with Tidal Flexure from ICESat-2
Published: 2026-04-29
Subjects: Glaciology
In the grounding zones of Antarctic ice sheets, grounded ice sheets become floating ice shelves at the triple junction of the ice, ocean, and bedrock. Ice downstream of the grounding line rises and falls with ocean tides while ice upstream of it does not, creating kilometers wide flexure zones. Ice thickness in the flexure zone cannot be well estimated by assuming it is in hydrostatic [...]
Long-term future Greenland ice loss determined by peak global warming
Published: 2026-04-29
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Glaciology
The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is known to be very sensitive to climate change, and persistent global warming only slightly higher than today could be enough to completely melt it. However, the implications of a temporary crossing of this temperature threshold for future GrIS mass loss remain unknown. Here we present simulations of the next 10,000 years under different future anthropogenic [...]