Preprints
There are 6610 Preprints listed.
Assessing the medium-term risk to reef damage and rubble generation for the Great Barrier Reef
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Oceanography, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coral reef systems live in multi-hazard environments and are exposed to a wide range of disturbance events that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. We identify seven drivers derived from hazards that have and can result in reef damage in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): waves, winds, bottom current velocity, coral bleaching, crown-of-thorns seastar outbreaks, ship groundings, and [...]
An analysis of landslides in Great Britain using soil texture, rainfall, and topography reveals contrasting failure conditions between organic and mineral soils
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Rainfall-induced landslides cause millions of pounds in damage to infrastructure in Great Britain (GB) annually and occasionally result in human fatalities. However, there are limited guidelines or policies aimed at reducing landslide risk in GB and few studies have broadly characterized landslide incidence across the region. Furthermore, peat landslides, which are a phenomenon that occur almost [...]
Discharge Deficits in the Nepali Himalaya Linked to Greening and Warming
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Hydrology
Anthropogenic climate change and rapid infrastructure development have drastically altered the hydrology of many watersheds, influencing the speed at which water is absorbed, stored, and distributed. In this work, we use long-term daily discharge records in the Nepali Himalaya alongside rainfall and snowmelt data to explore whether there have been large-scale shifts in the conversion of upstream [...]
Amazon deforestation footprint across global food and financial systems
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Agriculture, Environmental Studies, Forest Management, Remote Sensing
Agriculture-driven deforestation in the Amazon remains a major threat to ecosystem stability, biodiversity, and climate regulation. Yet the role of global commodity consumption and finance in driving deforestation in the Amazon remains poorly understood and inadequately addressed. We provide the first comprehensive assessment of the Amazon deforestation footprint embedded in global supply chains [...]
Mapping the interaction of a pyroclastic density current with irregular topography: the chemically-zoned, low aspect-ratio Green Tuff ignimbrite, Pantelleria, Italy
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Volcanology
Pyroclastic density currents are known to have high mobility, overtopping topographic barriers great distances from source. However, how density currents interact with topography is not yet fully understood, particularly with regard to dense, granular, sustained currents. We used detailed chemical mapping to show how the response of an individual pyroclastic current to topographic barriers [...]
The distribution of Earth’s wind-blown sand dunes
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Climate, Geology, Geomorphology
Sand dunes develop when there is a source of sediment and wind capable of saltating that sediment. Dune morphology and occurrence can then be used to infer the distribution of sediment sources and climate conditions during their formation. This is particularly useful for inference of past climate from relict dunes or the sedimentary record, and for climate conditions where direct observation is [...]
Connectivity between primary and secondary subglacial drainage systems beneath a land-terminating outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The evolution and connectivity of subglacial drainage systems controls basal sliding and therefore modulates ice flow, yet direct observations of these systems remain limited. Here, we investigate hydraulic connectivity and its influence on ice motion at Isunnguata Sermia - a large land-terminating outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We use ‘Cryoegg’ wireless sensors to obtain moulin [...]
Hydrological modeling in a highly urbanized watershed using explainable machine learning and sub-hourly data: A case study in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Engineering
Hydrological modeling of urbanized watersheds is a highly challenging task due to the complexity and non-linearity of the rainfall-runoff relationship in these areas. Many data-driven models have been proposed in the literature to address this problem. However, in this field, there is a need not only for performance but also for explainability and comprehension of the impacts of [...]
Processing flaws and uneven Sentinel-1 coverage distort global flood trend interpretations
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Hydrology
The Response of Onset and Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon to Volcanic Aerosols
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Large volcanic eruptions are a source of climate variability, affecting the seasonal mean precipitation of the Indian summer monsoon. However, the extent to which changes in seasonal precipitation can be attributed to variations in monsoon length vs. monsoon intensity has remained unclear. Using large ensemble simulations of idealised volcanic eruptions at varying latitudes, we find that the [...]
vathra.xyz — Crowdsourced Monitoring of Greece's Geodetic Heritage: Architecture, Empirical Results, and Legal Framework
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Other Earth Sciences, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Greece's national trigonometric network comprises 25,258 geodetic survey points established by the Hellenic Military Geographical Service (HMGS/GYS). This paper presents vathra.xyz, an open-source web platform for crowdsourced condition monitoring of these points using Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) methods. We describe the system architecture (React, PostGIS, Leaflet, browser-based AR [...]
High-resolution interactive global flood forecast for past, present, and future
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Engineering
Globally operating modelling approaches for flood dynamics have shown significant increases in usage, quality and availability in recent years. Flood modelling at global scale stretches the computational demand, due to combinations of spatial scale and resolution, limiting to static pre-computed maps and prohibiting interactivity. Particular high-resolution global models are only available as [...]
Deep-learning climate emulator ACE2 reveals a global decrease in tropical cyclone 5 frequency in the 15th Century under an El Niño-like sea surface temperature pattern
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The relatively short modern observational record limits our understanding of the relationship between global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and sea surface temperature (SST), resulting in uncertain future TC projections. Using novel deep-learning-based past-millennium simulations with the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 (ACE2), we provide insight into the connections between SSTs and TCs. ACE2 [...]
Automated Levee Detection in Digital Elevation Models
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Geomorphology
Current flood risk models applied at national and global scales do not---or only partially---take levees into account, resulting in inaccurate flood inundation maps. While levees are important assets in natural hazard risk assessments, accurate information in the public domain about the location and height of these embankments is often missing. Remote sensing data---such as global digital [...]
On the seasonal predictability of the 2020 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) season was exceptionally active, producing over twenty named storms, yet several seasonal forecasts failed to predict such extreme activity across their ensemble spread. Even when forced with the observed 2020 sea surface temperatures (SSTs), physics-based models simulated only a moderately active season across their ensemble members. Using observations and [...]