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Preprints

There are 6630 Preprints listed.

Groundsource: A Dataset of Flood Events from News

Rotem Mayo, Oleg Zlydenko, Moral Bootbool, et al.

Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Hydrology

Characterization and Meteorological Drivers of Dust Events over California’s Central Valley

Precious Ebiendele, Adeyemi A Adebiyi, John Abatzoglou, et al.

Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Life Sciences

Dust events in California’s Central Valley pose severe risks to public health, regional air quality, and transportation. Yet, the climatology and meteorological drivers of dust events in the region are poorly characterized due to sparse monitoring and limitations of satellite observations. Using meteorological observations from 15 Automated Surface Observation System stations, we systematically [...]

Rethinking Hydroclimatic Extremes: Occurrence of abrupt Drought-to-Heavy-Precipitation transition events

Pallavi Goswami, Siqi Deng, Ailie J. E. Gallant, et al.

Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Drought-to-heavy-precipitation abrupt transitions (sometimes called dry-to-wet extremes, whiplash events, or drought–flood transitions) are an emerging research focus. These are rapid shifts from a period of sustained drought (rainfall deficits, soil moisture stress, low streamflow) to intense precipitation or flooding over short timescales. Also described as climate whiplash events, they reflect [...]

Application of statistical downscaling models to assess climate change impacts on the East Rapti River Basin using the Rx5day index

Rajendra Man Shrestha, Shiva Prasad Shiva Prasad Khanal, Subekchya Subedi, et al.

Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Statistics and Probability

A landlocked, mountains-dominated country, Nepal is one such country that is highly susceptible to climate change. The East Rapti River Basin (ERRB), a sensitive corridor, is under extreme threats due to flooding as well as rainfall variability. The study aims to evaluate the performance of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in simulating historical rainfall and to project future changes in [...]

Crowdsourced air temperature data for the evaluation of urban microscale simulations: Insights into spatiotemporal patterns from three German cities

Lara van der Linden, Björn Maronga, Benjamin Bechtel

Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Rapid development of microscale urban climate models in recent years requires ongoing model evaluation under different scenarios and conditions. In a previous study, we utilised crowdsourced air temperature data from Netatmo citizen weather stations (CWS) for the evaluation of the PALM model during a hot summer day in the city of Bochum, Germany. The data proved valuable due to their high spatial [...]

Magnetic dual-layer equivalent sources on the sphere

Arthur Siqueira-Macedo, Leonardo Uieda, India Uppal

Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology

The equivalent source method is widely used for processing and interpolating magnetic data, particularly in airborne surveys. However, implementations based on Cartesian coordinates present limitations at regional and global scales, where Earth curvature introduces geometric inconsistencies that affect data integration and modeling accuracy. To address this problem, this study proposes an [...]

A Multi-year Analysis of Supraglacial Lake Seasonal Dynamics in the Karakoram

Imran Khan, Mahsa Moradi, Jennifer M. Jacobs, et al.

Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Supraglacial lakes are a key feature of many debris-covered glaciers in the Karakoram region. These lakes are highly dynamic, often forming and draining rapidly on seasonal timescales. However, due to their small size and transient nature, they are largely absent from regional and global glacial lake inventories. In this study, we used Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to examine [...]

Implications of impact-energy dependent erosional efficiency on bedrock river sediment dynamics and form: 1. Reach-scale dynamics and the effective flood

Claire C Masteller

Published: 2026-03-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology

Bedrock river incision reflects the cumulative geomorphic work performed across a distribution of flood magnitudes and frequencies. Mechanistic models of bedrock incision by bedload impacts typically assume that bedrock resistance to erosion is constant with respect to particle impact energy. However, recent impact experiments demonstrate that rock resistance to erosion decreases systematically [...]

AI expands high-quality urban flash flood forecasts globally

Oleg Zlydenko, Hadas Fester, Shmuel Fronman, et al.

Published: 2026-03-09
Subjects: Hydrology

Bridging Natural Language and Desktop GIS Automation with LLM-Powered GIS Plugins

Fehér Zsolt Zoltán

Published: 2026-03-08
Subjects: Other Earth Sciences, Software Engineering

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are indispensable for spatial analysis and remote sensing, but still, scripting interfaces that enable automation (ArcPy, PyQGIS, and SNAP GPT) impose a steep technical barrier on domain scientists who are not software developers. We present GIS~Chat, an open-source suite of three plugins that embed a Large Language Model (LLM) chat panel directly inside [...]

Bridging ERA5 Reanalysis Data and Regulatory Air Dispersion Modelling: A Transparent Workflow Implemented through the WindRose Toolkit

Paolo Bidello

Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Regulatory atmospheric dispersion models such as AERMOD and CALPUFF are widely adopted for Environmental Impact Assessments involving atmospheric emissions. Despite their scientific maturity and regulatory acceptance, the practical application of these modelling systems outside the North American context is often constrained by the limited availability of suitable meteorological datasets. In many [...]

Along-strike coupling heterogeneity in Cascadia’s slow-slip zone constrained by GNSS and reduced-order rate-and-state friction modeling

Yohai Magen, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Dave A May

Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology

Slow slip events (SSEs) in the Cascadia subduction zone exhibit along-strike segmentation, where the central segment has longer recurrence intervals but smaller moments. We quantify the controls on this variability by combining geodetic inter-SSE coupling inversion with Bayesian inference of a quasi-dynamic rate-and-state friction SSE-cycle model accelerated by reduced-order modeling. We find [...]

Arctic summer cloud optical properties and annual sea-ice retreat

Michael Behrenfeld, Yongxiang Hu, Ilan Koren, et al.

Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Changes in Arctic sea-ice areal coverage have major ecological, climate, and economic implications and are driven by diverse natural and anthropogenic forcings acting over a wide range of time scales. Cloud-related variability in atmospheric radiative budgets is suspected to be particularly important in year-to-year changes in ice melt. Here, we describe a decade of pan-Arctic satellite light [...]

Validation of ICESat-2 ATL13 Version 7 Water Surface Elevation on Small High-Latitude Rivers: A Case Study of the River Dee and River Don, Aberdeenshire, Scotland

Shobha Mourya Dumpati

Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Hydrology, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science

Satellite Laser Altimetry represents an attractive opportunity to supplement the sparsely distributed in situ gauge network used to monitor rivers. The performance of satellite laser altimetry on small, high latitude streams has however been characterized as being poor. This research will be validating ICESat-2 ATL13 version 7 measured water surface elevations (WSE) for the River Dee (average [...]

Time-dependent forecast of large earthquakes from physics-informed probabilistic approach

Sylvain MICHEL, Diego Molina Ormazabal, Jean Paul Ampuero, et al.

Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The elastic energy that fuels large earthquakes accumulates heterogeneously along faults, resulting in complex earthquake occurrence patterns. Although earthquake cycle simulations help capture such complexity in seismic hazard models, their high computational cost prevents widespread use and uncertainty quantification. Here, we propose a physics-based probabilistic method to forecast the timing [...]

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