Preprints
There are 7907 Preprints listed.
Tail Skill and Ensemble-Configuration Sensitivity in Six-Hour Precipitation Postprocessing
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Meteorology
Statistical postprocessing supports probabilistic precipitation forecasting. Comparing methods requires separating forecast performance from the effects of case selection, ensemble configuration, and scoring convention. We develop a paired diagnostic workflow that separates observation conditioning from aggregation, decomposes model and raw-ensemble responses to member reduction, and examines [...]
Municipal exposure to sea-level-rise inundation in Connecticut: a reproducible screening analysis of NOAA inundation-extent data and its sensitivity to methodological choices
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Geographic Information Sciences, Oceanography, Physical and Environmental Geography
Municipal tabulations of sea-level-rise exposure are widely used in coastal planning, but they are sensitive to processing choices that are rarely reported. We tabulated NOAA Office for Coastal Management ocean-connected inundation-extent rasters for Connecticut (0.5–10 ft above mean higher high water, MHHW; ~3 m resolution from 2023 statewide lidar) for all 169 municipalities, using 2020 Census [...]
Robust warming rates, marginal evidence of acceleration and unstable extrapolation: a reproducible reanalysis of statistical trend models for the Berkeley Earth global temperature record
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Statistical Models
Simple trend fits to the global temperature record are widely used to summarise warming, but their uncertainty, their evidence for acceleration and their predictive value are often overstated. We re-analysed an earlier linear and quadratic analysis of the Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean record (1850–2024) that reported in-sample R² values of 0.74 and 0.90 and a post-1970 warming rate of 0.194 °C per [...]
Stabilizing seismic source inversion by accounting for P-wave picking uncertainty: A waveform-shift covariance approach
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In seismic source inversion using teleseismic P waves, P-wave arrival times are picked from observed waveforms and used to adjust their timing relative to the predicted arrivals. However, uncertainty in the picked arrival times remains after this correction. Picking errors shift the entire waveform and produce temporally correlated waveform errors. If these errors are not properly accounted for, [...]
Soil Carbon Stocks and Radiocarbon Profiles in Three Agricultural Systems of California’s Central Valley
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Soil Science
Carbon stocks alone do not describe the age composition of soil carbon. We examined how soil carbon stocks and bulk radiocarbon varied with depth among fields with contrasting management histories in California's Central Valley. We compared monoculture and polyculture annual vegetable fields, 20- and 60-year-old peach [Prunus persica (L.) Batsch] orchards, and a bare field margin with 10- and [...]
Ecological compression of vegetation information in wildfire spread prediction: a case study of the 2020 Brattain Fire
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Geographic Information Sciences, Remote Sensing
Broad fuel categories simplify mapped vegetation, but it is unclear whether the distinctions removed help predict wildfire spread. We examined whether vegetation composition improved prediction of the next observed fire-growth interval and measured the information lost by grouping fuel models. Using the 2020 Brattain Fire in Oregon, we compared baseline predictors describing fire state, terrain, [...]
Grounding-Line Retreat and Sea-Level Feedback in Pine Island Glacier: A Century-Scale Perspective
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A vital component of the global climate system is the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). West AIS’s major outlet is Pine Island Glacier (PIG), which has been rapidly thinned as well as accelerated recently. As per numerous studies, PIG is undergoing irreversible retreat and acceleration. Yet, there is a lack of studies on the coupled feedback mechanism between the ice sheets and Sea Level (SL) in the [...]
3D inversions of magnetic and gravity data for the Yaouré region, Ivory Coast: a greenstone belt characterization
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology
We carried out 3D inverse modeling of full tensor gravity gradiometry data, its derived products (Tz and Tz residual), and magnetic data to recover the density and magnetic susceptibility distributions of the Yaouré Greenstone Belt in Ivory Coast, West Africa. The study area presents significant challenges: it lacks well-defined stratigraphy and structural measurements, and it lies close to the [...]
Self-Calibration of the Breaker Index from Fixed-Camera Wave Heights
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Engineering
Depth inversions from breaking waves usually assume a breaker index γ, the ratio of breaking height to water depth. Where breaking is depth-limited, the height at a fixed location rises and falls with the tide at the rate γ. Breaking waves tracked in video from fixed coastal cameras therefore can give the index from this tide response and the depth from the mean breaking height, with no survey, [...]
Contrasting Coal Power Trajectories in Southern Africa: Compound Air Pollution, Extreme Heat Exposures and the 2023 Hwange Expansion
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Public Health
Coal-fired power generation is declining at many established sites in South Africa, while new capacity is being commissioned in drought-exposed parts of the Zambezi basin. This uneven transition raises concerns about the coincidence of industrial emissions, extreme heat and socioeconomic vulnerability. We assessed compound air-pollution and heat risk around coal power plants in Zimbabwe, Botswana [...]
The discovery of moderate non-linear surprises in CMIP6 models
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
This study presents an automated algorithm for detecting Moderate Non-linear Surprises (MNS) in the outputs of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), building upon and relaxing existing methodologies for detection of critical transitions in climate models. The approach combines four statistical criteria — standard deviation, maximum 10-year [...]
Hydrometeorological Consistency and Structural Differences in High-Resolution Atmospheric Forcing Products over the Gulf Coast
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Hydrology
Kilometer-scale meteorological forcing products are increasingly used in hydrologic applications, yet comparable resolution does not ensure consistent atmospheric structure or derived diagnostics. This study compares AORC and NLDAS-3 across the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast (Texas to the Carolinas) from 2001–2020 using a common spatial footprint and paired days. Relative to AORC, NLDAS-3 exhibits [...]
A static arrest criterion classifies some fault-spanning ruptures as arrested
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A static arrest length and a fully dynamic rupture are compared, one rupture at a time, for 60 antiplane and 60 in-plane cases on one 120 km fault with linear slip weakening and one correlation length of the initial stress. The standard deviations were fixed before those ruptures were drawn. The comparison tests the rule, used to build earthquake populations, that a rupture stops where its static [...]
Development of a Combined Detection and Relocation Workflow (TM2DD) to Characterize Escalating Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity in the Karnes Trough Fault Zone of the Eagle Ford Shale Play, Texas
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
On January 30, 2025, an M4.7 earthquake shook the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas, the region's second M4 event in under eighteen months. Unlike much of the central United States, where induced seismicity stems from wastewater disposal, most of the earthquakes in the Eagle Ford are linked to hydraulic fracturing (HF) (Fasola et al., 2019; Fasola & Brudzinski, 2023). If HF-induced, the 2025 event [...]
A regional assessment of methane emissions from natural gas production in the Transylvanian Basin, Romania
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Romania hosts one of the largest and oldest natural gas production sectors in Europe, yet direct measurements of methane emissions from its principal gas-producing region, the Transylvanian Basin, remain limited. Here, we present the first basin-scale, measurement-based assessment of methane emissions from natural gas production facilities in the Transylvanian Basin based on 160 methane emission [...]