Preprints
There are 6275 Preprints listed.
When the City Never Sleeps: Urban Climate Vulnerabilities in Ghana’s Shift to a 24-Hour Economy
Published: 2025-11-29
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Ghana’s 24H+ Programme proposes a transition toward a 24-hour economy as a strategy to expand employment, strengthen productivity, and modernize national development. While the policy outlines economic and infrastructural priorities, its implications for urban climate risks and resilience have not been examined. This study assesses how continuous economic activity may influence climate-related [...]
Matters Arising: Critical Methodological Flaws in Qin et al. (2025) "Mangrove sediment carbon burial offset by methane emissions from mangrove tree stems"
Published: 2025-11-28
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences
The authors report global mangrove stem CH₄ emissions of 730.60 Gg yr⁻¹, offsetting 16.9% of carbon burial. However, their analysis suffers from critical methodological flaws involving the failure to remove extreme statistical outliers, with 14.2% of chamber measurements and 15.5% of site observations identified as outliers by standard criteria. The analysis demonstrates inappropriate handling of [...]
Estimating the Global Oil-Gas Methane Emission Rate Distribution at Facility Scale using Multiple Satellite Systems
Published: 2025-11-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We estimate the global oil and gas (OG) emission rate distribution above ~20 kg h-1 at facility scale using 16,294 quantified OG methane emission rates detected from five high-resolution satellite instrument/data processing combinations in 2024 and 2025 (GHGSat/GHGSat, Tanager/Carbon Mapper, EMIT/Carbon Mapper, Sentinel-2/IMEO-MARS, Landsat/IMEO-MARS). We find that the emission rate distribution [...]
Characterization of historical rainfall patterns: linear segmentation and quadratic bifurcation
Published: 2025-11-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This article proposes a method for characterizing rainfall transitions based on historical series. Two synthetic parameters are analyzed: the annual or seasonal amount of rainfall (RR) and the median of daily rainfall (m). This median is estimated by means of a log-logistic adjustment (Fisk), ensuring a robust measurement of the daily rainfall distribution. Two complementary approaches are used [...]
Throw rate acceleration caused by dip-linkage on normal faults
Published: 2025-11-28
Subjects: Tectonics and Structure
Areas of crustal extension often contain pre-existing structures that can reactivate or influence the geometry and growth of new, overlying faults. As strain accumulates, it is well know that new faults may link down-dip with pre-existing faults. Such linkage invariably leads to an increase in fault surface area, which is empirically linked to increasing seismic hazard. However, the timescales [...]
Sediment loading from the Río de la Plata as a driver of regional sea-level variability
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Sedimentology
Sea-level reconstructions are critical benchmarks for testing models of ice-sheet stability and climate change. Their interpretation, however, is complicated by sea-level changes driven by different processes, among which the Earth’s response to sediment loading. Here we show that incorporating sediment isostasy reduces long-standing discrepancies among Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5a and 5e [...]
Foreshock Behaviors and Mainshock Rupture Properties Associated with the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake Sequence
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The July 29 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake ruptured the plate interface off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula along the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. Following the mainshock, tsunamis were recorded in multiple countries along the Pacific Ocean boundary and its islands, along with the eruption of several volcanoes in Kamchatka. The mainshock was preceded by a strong foreshock sequence [...]
Evaluating the importance of street trees and their parameters for urban canopy model performance: Model updates and machine learning
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
In this study, the effects of street trees on the performance of an urban canopy model (UCM) and how the UCM sensitively responds to tree-related parameters compared with urban thermal parameters are examined. For this, a single-layer UCM is extended to represent street trees within urban canyons and multi-objective parameter optimizations and a global sensitivity analysis are conducted with the [...]
Oxidation state of Mayotte magmatic series: insights from Fe and S K-edge XANES spectroscopy
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Volcanology
Following the 2018-2020 Fani Maoré submarine eruption near Mayotte Island, Indian Ocean, multiple oceanographic expeditions provide unprecedented access to fresh alkaline volcanic glasses spanning basanite to phonolite compositions from the East-Mayotte Volcanic Chain (EMVC). We applied Fe and S K-edge X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Spectroscopy (XANES) to determine iron and sulfur oxidation states [...]
Retrospective Detection of Seismic Precursors Using Multi-Scale Energy Curvature
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Energy curvature controls catastrophic failure in seismic systems. We show this through a self-normalizing logarithmic functional Fω = ω(t)² · log(1 + |ω(t)| / median(|ω|)), where ω is the second derivative of seismic energy release. When F stays bounded, the system remains stable. When F diverges, rupture becomes more probable. Our precursor detection method combines spectral analysis using [...]
Short-term morphological response of rubble coral islands to the impact of a small tropical cyclone
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storm events with the potential to cause significant damage to coral reef and island ecosystems. The evolution of coral rubble (shingle) islands within these ecosystems relies on the complex eco-morphodynamic relationship between the supply of biogenic sediment from the reef and subsequent transport by hydrodynamic forces. Storms have the potential to alter [...]
A First Principles Critique of the Back Calculation Method: Understanding and Assessing the Alteration of Atmospheric Gases Trapped in Ancient Fluid Inclusions
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The extraction of atmospheric gases from fluid inclusions has emerged as an extremely promising approach for directly constraining the composition of Earth's ancient atmospheres. However, the veracity of data obtained from these inclusions critically depends on how well one can account for the effects of physical chemistry and post-depositional alteration. The Back Calculation Method (BCM) [...]
Governing the cryosphere beyond political timeframes
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Glaciology, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sustainability
Cryospheric systems are nearing irreversible thresholds, yet political processes remain misaligned with the long timescales of ice loss. Using COP30 as context, we argue that cryosphere science must inform governance capable of linking near-term decisions with long-term stability in a rapidly changing world.
Timescales of Antarctic ice shelf loss via basal crevassing
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Antarctic ice-shelves are vulnerable to collapse in a warming climate. However, when this might happen is largely unknown, propagating significant uncertainty into sea-level-rise projections. To constrain this uncertainty, we use fracture modelling to predict the timescales on which crevasses fully penetrate ice-shelves, and consider how these timescales change under future warming. We find that [...]
Computation to Choose a Future: Planetary Stewardship in the Age of AI
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The accelerating transformations of the Anthropocene demand governance systems capable of anticipating and steering complex, nonlinear Earth-system dynamics. Existing models optimize for likely trajectories rather than exploring a broader set of futures. This commentary introduces the concept of Computational Foresight (CF): an integrative framework combining artificial intelligence, simulation, [...]