Preprints
There are 7844 Preprints listed.
X-ray microdiffraction mapping on experimentally synthesized clinopyroxenes
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Volcanology
Crystallographic parameters serve as fundamental archives of crystallization environments, with pressure generally acting as a key variable governing crystal formation. In magmatic systems, tracking crystallographic and chemical parameters in clinopyroxene is critical for robust magmatic thermobarometry and reconstructing crystal life histories. While chemical thermobarometry is limited by melt [...]
Evaluating Dynamic Viability of Finite-Fault Slip Models with Ensemble Kalman Inversion
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Finite-fault slip models are widely used to infer earthquake rupture processes, yet they are inherently non-unique and do not guarantee physically consistent rupture evolution. Here, we develop a data-constrained framework that couples Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) with large-scale 3D dynamic rupture simulations to efficiently evaluate the dynamic viability of finite-fault slip models. The [...]
Historical and projected freshwater withdrawals and irrigation consumptive use for Arizona, 1896–2099
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology
Sustainable water management needs spatially resolved withdrawal estimates, yet such data remain scarce worldwide. In Arizona, USA, decades of aquifer overdraft and Colorado River over-allocation have outpaced local withdrawal data, constraining policymaking. We present annual freshwater withdrawal and irrigation consumptive use estimates for Arizona at 2 km resolution over 1896–2099, partitioned [...]
VITAL-PATHS-FOOD: New Transformative Change Pathways for Tackling Climate, Human Development, and Biodiversity Loss and Incorporating Plural Perspectives on Justice and the Value of Nature.
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Nature and Society Relations
The IPBES Transformative Change Assessment (2025) gives a central role to equity, justice, and the value of nature in facilitating sustainable transformations, by acting as a powerful deep leverage point that aligns sustainability transformations with the values and worldviews different communities hold. Scenarios and modelling studies offer a tool for examining ways of acting on these leverage [...]
Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts for Mississippi River Navigation Risk and Parametric Insurance
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Fresh Water Studies, Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Mississippi River navigation is disrupted by both low and high water extremes, yet shippers, ports, and terminals lack a simple instrument to transfer that risk. We test whether probabilistic forecasts of monthly streamflow can provide useful navigation-risk information. Using pretrained Chronos-2 at three major Mississippi River subbasin outlets, we compute navigation risk probabilities, [...]
Wave-Driven Sliding, Ratcheting, and Overturning of Coral Transplant Units: An Idealized Nonsmooth Contact Model
Published: 2026-10-11
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Marine Biology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography, Systems Biology
Coral transplantation attaches fragments to a structure placed on the seabed, and that structure must stay put long enough for the fragments to fuse to it. We examine that requirement with an idealized model in which a transplant unit is a planar rigid body on a rigid bed under two unilateral frictional contacts, loaded through a Morison description of near-bed wave kinematics and integrated by a [...]
Quantifying volumetric erosion from symbolic expression of landslide morphology
Published: 2026-10-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Landslide volumetric erosion is fundamental to regional sediment budgets and downstream hazard assessment, yet accurately constraining material mobilization remains a primary bottleneck in Earth-system research. Legacy area–volume relations introduce substantial uncertainty when applied across heterogeneous landslide populations. Here, we examine whether the erosional and accumulation (i.e., [...]
ORBIT: A new, reduced-complexity air quality model for South Asia
Published: 2026-10-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences
Exposure to outdoor air pollution is the most important environmental health risk worldwide, associated with over a million deaths each year in South Asia alone. To understand how to improve air quality, it is necessary to model how changes in emissions affect changes in pollutant concentrations and human health. However, air quality modeling typically demands substantial computation and [...]
A thermodynamically consistent theory of multicomponent porous media: finite-deformation mechanics, compositional flow, electrostatics, reactions, and phase transformations
Published: 2026-10-10
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Petroleum Engineering
Reactive reservoir models must combine compositional flow, deformation, electrostatics, chemical reactions, and phase transformations without losing the thermodynamic origin of each term. This paper develops such a theory for multicomponent, multiphase porous media at finite deformation. Component mass conservation is first written on phase-attached material regions and then volume averaged, [...]
Land Use Change, Spillovers, and Transitions: Global Trends, Prospects, and Emerging Drivers
Published: 2026-10-10
Subjects: Agriculture, Biodiversity, Environmental Studies, Forest Sciences, Geography, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Other Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing
In this review, we first compile data on global trends and rates of major land use changes over the recent decades, and summarize the main insights revealed by these data. We then review recent research and quantitative estimates on key land use spillover processes, i.e., leakage, indirect land use change, rebound effect and land sparing, and agglomeration economies. We then turn to the [...]
Coupled in-reservoir and downstream water-temperature responses to the deep drawdown of a large reservoir, and tradeoffs for fisheries management
Published: 2026-10-10
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Across the Pacific Northwest and other regions, the construction and operation of large dams has provided numerous societal benefits but has also fundamentally altered present-day river networks by blocking fish passage and altering streamflows and thermal regimes. Increasingly, evolving management directives require dam operations far outside of historical operational regimes to achieve new [...]
Workflow for estimating above ground biomass from satellite imagery with non-geolocated ground validation data
Published: 2026-10-09
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Natural Resources and Conservation
Satellite-based aboveground biomass mapping typically relies on validation data from field-based inventory plots or other high resolution ground truthing, but acquiring validation data is challenging. In the United States, the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program is a common source of field validation data for biomass mapping, but currently the US Forest Service is not processing Material [...]
A scaling law for stagnant-lid convection with composite visco-elasto-plastic rheology: application to Europa's ice shell
Published: 2026-10-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Sciences, Tectonics and Structure
Scaling laws relating the Nusselt number (Nu) and the Rayleigh number (Ra) are the standard tool for translating numerical models of convection into predictions of surface heat flux and the thicknesses of the stagnant lid and the rheological sublayer. Existing scaling frameworks for icy moons normalise this relationship using a temperature-dependence parameter, γ, calibrated against viscous and [...]
Groundwater Potential Mapping in Northwestern Nigeria: A Comparison of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Galileo-Enhanced CAT-XGB
Published: 2026-10-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Global water scarcity intensifies the need for high-resolution groundwater assessment tools, yet traditional approaches struggle to reconcile qualitative expert weights with the extensive spatial coverage offered by remote sensing data. This study presents a comparative framework evaluating expert-driven Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (a ten-layer Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)) against [...]
P- and S-Wave Travel-Time Characteristics and Station-Dependent Residuals from Local Earthquakes in Ghana
Published: 2026-10-09
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding P- and S-wave travel-time behaviour is important for characterizing seismic-wave propagation and identifying station-dependent variability within regional seismic networks. This study investigates P- and S-wave travel-time characteristics and station-dependent residuals using local earthquakes recorded by the Ghana Digital Seismic Network (GHDSN). The analysis reexamines the [...]