Preprints

There are 1901 Preprints listed.

Tidal dynamics in palaeo-seas in response to changes in bathymetry, tidal forcing, and bed shear stress

Valentin Zuchuat, Elisabeth Steel, Ryan Mulligan, Daniel Collins, Mattias Green

Published: 2020-12-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The overall goal of this study is to simulate hydrodynamic conditions in a palaeo-ocean basin in order to better understand the effects of tidal forcing on sedimentary strata and our interpretation of the rock record. The application of numerical models can help deciphering the complex temporal evolution and spatial distribution of energy in tide-dominated palaeo-ocean basins recorded within [...]

Integrating ecosystem markets to co-ordinate landscape-scale public benefits from nature

Mark S Reed, Tom Curtis, Arjan Gosal, Guy Ziv, Sarah Pyndt Andersen, Ana Attlee, Matthew Hay, David Hill, Helen Kendall, Julia Martin-Ortega, Simone Martino, Stephen Prior, Chris Rodgers, Asger Strange Olesen, Hannah Rudman, Franziska Tanneberger, Kerry Waylen

Published: 2020-12-21
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences

Ecosystem markets are proliferating around the world in response to increasing demand for climate change mitigation and provision of other public goods. However, this may lead to perverse outcomes, for example where public funding crowds out private investment or different schemes create trade-offs between the ecosystem services they each target. The integration of ecosystem markets could address [...]

Evolution of a sand-rich submarine channel-lobe system and impact of mass-transport and transitional flow deposits on reservoir heterogeneity: Magnus Field, northern North Sea

Michael John Steventon, Christopher Aiden-Lee Jackson, Howard D. Johnson, David Mark Hodgson, Sean Kelly, Jenny Omma, Christine Gopon, Christopher Stevenson, Peter Fitch

Published: 2020-12-19
Subjects: Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy

The geometry, distribution, and rock properties (i.e. porosity and permeability) of turbidite reservoirs, and the processes associated with turbidity current deposition, are relatively well known. However, less attention has been given to the equivalent properties resulting from laminar sediment gravity-flow deposition, with most research limited to cogenetic turbidite-debrites (i.e. transitional [...]

Global air quality change during COVID-19: a synthetic result of human activities and meteorology

Qianqian Yang, Bin Wang, Yuan Wang, Qiangqiang Yuan, Caiyi Jin, Jiwen Wang, Shuwen Li, Muyu Li, Tongwen Li, Song Liu, Huanfeng Shen, Liangpei Zhang

Published: 2020-12-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

In recent months, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading around the globe, and this has led to a rare reduction in human activities. In such a background, data from ground-based environmental stations, satellites, and reanalysis materials are utilized to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the air quality changes during the COVID-19 outbreak at the global scale. The results showed [...]

Idealized forecast-assimilation experiments for convective-scale Numerical Weather Prediction

Thomas Kent, Luca Cantarello, Gordon Inverarity, Steven Tobias, Onno Bokhove

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

To aid understanding of and facilitate research into forecast-assimilation systems of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), idealized models that embody essential characteristics of these systems can be used. This article concerns the use of such an idealized fluid model of convective-scale NWP in inexpensive data assimilation (DA) experiments. The forecast model, introduced in Kent et al (2017), [...]

Small-scale lithospheric heterogeneity characterization using Bayesian inference

Itahisa Nesoya González Álvarez, Sebastian Rost, Andy Nowacki, Neil Selby

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Observations from different disciplines have shown that our planet is highly heterogeneous at multiple scale lengths. Still, many seismological Earth models tend not to include any small-scale heterogeneity or lateral velocity variations, which can affect measurements and predictions based on these homogeneous models. In this study, we describe the lithospheric small-scale heterogeneity structure [...]

The 2020 Mw 6.5 Monte Cristo Range, Nevada earthquake: relocated seismicity shows rupture of a complete shear-crack system

Anthony Lomax

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure

The predominant model for earthquake faulting is a shear crack, including surrounding damage zones. Observation of this complete shear crack system at seismogenic depth, however, has been elusive. Shear cracks with damage zones are related to fault formation and growth, and earthquake rupture physics and size, but observational and analytical limitations impede use of the shear crack paradigm in [...]

Given that the Paris Agreement is unlikely to prevent dangerous climate overshoot, an alternative risk management strategy is urgently needed

Graeme MacDonald Taylor, Sue Vink

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences

Because the 2015 Paris Agreement will not prevent dangerous climate change, there is an urgent need to develop an alternative mitigation strategy. Even if all national commitments are met and technological breakthroughs accelerate the transition to emission-free technologies, the 2°C target will still be overshot due to systemic inertia from existing greenhouse gases, warming oceans, and the [...]

Constraining the 410-km Discontinuity with Triplication Waveform

Jiaqi Li, Min Chen, Jieyuan Ning, Tiezhao Bao, Ross Maguire, Tong Zhou

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The detailed structures near the 410-km discontinuity provide key constraints of the dynamic interactions between the upper mantle and the lower mantle through the mantle transition zone via mass and heat exchange. The 410-km discontinuity topography inside the slab could be used to infer the existence of the metastable olivine wedge, further investigate the possible mechanism for deepfocus [...]

The UK needs an open data portal dedicated to coastal flood and erosion hazard risk and resilience

Eli Lazarus, Sofia Aldabet, Charlotte E L Thompson, Chris T Hill, Robert J Nicholls, Jon R French, Sally Brown, Emma L Tompkins, Ivan D Haigh, Ian H Townend, Edmund C Penning-Rowsell

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Geographic Information Sciences, Geomorphology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Sustainability

In the UK, coastal flooding and erosion are two of the primary climate-related hazards to communities, businesses, and infrastructure. To better address the ramifications of those hazards, now and into the future, the UK needs to transform its scattered, fragmented coastal data resources into a systematic, integrated, quality-controlled, openly accessible data portal. Such a portal would support [...]

Multi-decadal improvement in U.S. lake water clarity

Simon Nemer Topp, Tamlin M. Pavelsky, Emily H. Stanley, Xiao Yang, Claire G. Griffin, Matthew R.V. Ross

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Hydrology, Water Resource Management

Across the globe, recent work examining the state of freshwater resources paints an increasingly dire picture of degraded water quality. However, much of this work either focuses on a small subset of large waterbodies or uses in situ water quality datasets that contain biases in when and where sampling occurred. Using these unrepresentative samples limits our understanding of landscape level [...]

Uncertainty Estimation with Deep Learning for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling

Daniel Klotz, Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Alden Keefe Sampson, Günter Klambauer, Sepp Hochreiter, Grey Nearing

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology

Deep Learning is becoming an increasingly important way to produce accurate hydrological predictions across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Uncertainty estimations are critical for actionable hydrological forecasting, and while standardized community benchmarks are becoming an increasingly important part of hydrological model development and research, similar tools for benchmarking [...]

Future changes in Northern Hemisphere summer weather persistence linked to projected Arctic warming.

Kai Kornhuber, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Understanding the response of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to climatic change remains a key challenge. Specifically, changes in the equator-to-pole temperature difference have been suggested to affect the mid-latitudes, potentially leading to more persistent extreme weather, but a scientific consensus has not been established so far. Here we quantify summer weather persistence by [...]

Assessing geomorphic change in restored coastal dune ecosystems using a multi-platform aerial approach

Zach Hilgendorf, M. Colin Marvin, Craig M. Turner, Ian J. Walker

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) provide an effective method to examine geomorphic and vegetation change in restored coastal dune ecosystems. Coupling structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry with RGB orthomosaic imagery allows researchers to characterize spatial-temporal geomorphic responses associated with differences in vegetation cover. Such approaches provide quantitative data on landscape [...]

Mechanisms for avulsion on alluvial fans: insights from high-frequency topographic data

Anya Leenman, Brett Eaton

Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Avulsion is a key process in building alluvial fans, but it is also a formidable natural hazard. Based on laboratory experiments monitored with novel high-frequency photogrammetry, we present a new model for avulsion on widely graded gravel fans. Previous experimental studies of alluvial fans have suggested that avulsion occurs in a periodic autogenic cycle, that is thought to be mediated by the [...]

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